Zamfara State

Rooftop solar in Anka, Zamfara: what the roofs are worth

Anka has 58,943 buildings with a viable rooftop and 402 MWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦11.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

58,943

Usable roof area

1.82 km²

402 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦11.8bn/yr

10.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.1 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Anka

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦11.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦11.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦618bn

NPV₦91.7bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback13.1 yr

Unlocked energy10.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity73.6 MWp

Capex₦78.9bn

Year-one energy value₦86.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.07tn

NPV₦705bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Anka's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 73.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦78.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦86.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦705bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Anka pays back quickly

Of the 58,033 buildings in Anka with a modelled payback, 34.2% pay back inside five years and 3.5% inside three.

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How much of Anka's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Anka consume 21.8 GWh/yr but want 32.3 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Anka

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Anka actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 58,033 buildings with a modelled result out of 58,943 in Anka. 22,322 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,034 (4%)

Under 5 years19,828 (34%)

Under 7 years22,337 (38%)

Under 10 years28,445 (49%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%26,185 (44%)

Above 15%22,322 (38%)

Above 20%20,699 (35%)

Above 25%17,938 (30%)

CO₂ avoided

21.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.08 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

292k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Anka.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Anka

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	25,241	828	₦4.67bn	₦4.41bn	7%	14.1 yr
E	22,859	365	₦1.83bn	₦1.83bn	7%	13.6 yr
C	10,843	797	₦5.27bn	₦5.05bn	27%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	58,077	1,306	₦8.66bn	₦8.2bn	9%	13.1 yr
Commercial General	303	254	₦1.38bn	₦1.38bn	65%	1.6 yr
Anchor	251	156	₦1.62bn	₦1.62bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	202	194	₦68.5m	₦68.5m	73%	1.4 yr
Worship	106	78	₦33m	₦33m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	2	2	₦6.52m	₦6.52m	77%	1.4 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦781k	₦781k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	32,981	541	₦213m	₦209m	5%	16.4 yr
50 100m2	11,337	530	₦2.01bn	₦1.89bn	31%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	10,305	330	₦326m	₦326m	11%	8.9 yr
100 250m2	3,686	424	₦3.33bn	₦3.2bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	620	155	₦4.38bn	₦4.16bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	14	10	₦1.52bn	₦1.51bn	67%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	24,825	651	₦1.91bn	₦1.91bn	9%	9.6 yr
Unclassified	24,806	366	₦3.05bn	₦2.59bn	5%	16.1 yr
Dense Urban	5,871	674	₦3.38bn	₦3.38bn	31%	3.6 yr
Urban	3,441	299	₦3.43bn	₦3.43bn	15%	6.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	35,594	433	₦139m	₦139m	5%	15.9 yr
Residential Small	14,072	578	₦2.42bn	₦2.2bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	5,505	293	₦5.79bn	₦5.54bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	2,704	2	₦291m	₦291m	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	202	194	₦68.5m	₦68.5m	73%	1.4 yr
Commercial	159	154	₦781m	₦781m	71%	1.4 yr
Institutional	158	104	₦1.42bn	₦1.42bn	59%	1.9 yr
Apartment	139	0	₦20.1m	₦20.1m	31%	3.6 yr
Educational Facility	95	58	₦116m	₦116m	85%	1.1 yr
Duplex	63	0	₦8.26m	₦8.26m	31%	3.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	48	27	₦168m	₦168m	45%	1.9 yr
School	46	27	₦35.1m	₦35.1m	65%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	58,943	1,990	₦11.8bn	₦11.3bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	58,502	1,651	₦8.99bn	₦8.52bn	9%	13.1 yr
Enterprise	253	158	₦1.63bn	₦1.62bn	57%	1.9 yr
SME High	188	181	₦1.15bn	₦1.15bn	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	35,609	442	₦139m	₦139m
2.0	9,076	349	₦1.42bn	₦1.32bn
3.0	6,905	791	₦8.55bn	₦8.17bn
1.0	4,656	349	₦520m	₦516m
4.0	2,696	58	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn
6.0	1	1	₦121m	₦121m