Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Yobe State: buildings, spend and payback

1,759,431 buildings in Yobe State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦203bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 3% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

1,759,431

Usable roof area

39.4 km²

8.67 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦203bn/yr

167 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

15.1 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Yobe

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦203bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦194bn

Lifetime cash saved₦10.4tn

NPV₦1.54tn

Median IRR7%

Median payback15.1 yr

Unlocked energy174 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity945 MWp

Capex₦1.02tn

Year-one energy value₦1.02tn

Lifetime energy value₦47.7tn

NPV₦8.2tn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Yobe State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 945 MWp
Capital cost: ₦1.02tn
Year 1 savings: ₦1.02tn/yr
NPV: ₦8.2tn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Yobe State pays back quickly

Of the 1,740,128 buildings in Yobe State with a modelled payback, 22.4% pay back inside five years and 3.4% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

22.4%

Payback under 3 years

3.4%

IRR above 20%

24.8%

Under 3 years · 3%3 – 5 years · 19%5 – 7 years · 11%7 – 10 years · 8%Over 10 years · 58%

Coverage: 99% of buildings in Yobe State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Yobe State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Yobe State consume 390 GWh/yr but want 565 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 69%Suppressed · 31%

Energy wanted

565 GWh/yr

Energy consumed

390 GWh/yr

Unmet demand

174 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Yobe State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 1,740,128 buildings with a modelled result out of 1,759,431 in Yobe State. 580,675 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years58,885 (3%)

Under 5 years390,553 (22%)

Under 7 years582,964 (34%)

Under 10 years722,684 (42%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%690,275 (39%)

Above 15%580,675 (33%)

Above 20%436,755 (25%)

Above 25%321,593 (18%)

Electricity billing bands in Yobe State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Yobe State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	538,232	8,126	₦34.2bn	₦31.6bn	5%	17.6 yr
E	490,932	6,466	₦32.7bn	₦30.6bn	5%	17.6 yr
B	304,354	13,929	₦58.5bn	₦56.5bn	21%	5.1 yr
C	270,851	7,660	₦46.5bn	₦44.2bn	11%	8.6 yr
A	155,062	10,035	₦31.1bn	₦30.6bn	23%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	1,731,019	36,148	₦143bn	₦136bn	7%	15.4 yr
Commercial Retail	16,133	4,451	₦1.34bn	₦1.34bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	8,612	2,999	₦15.9bn	₦15.7bn	39%	2.9 yr
Anchor	3,309	2,412	₦41.1bn	₦39.3bn	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	150	95	₦22.3m	₦22.3m	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial	96	53	₦941m	₦941m	45%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	49	16	₦287m	₦286m	39%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	38	33	₦6.38m	₦6.38m	67%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	14	6	₦14.9m	₦14.9m	39%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	9	2	₦2.79m	₦2.79m	37%	2.9 yr
Automotive	2	1	₦261k	₦261k	33%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	1,219,084	18,281	₦5.46bn	₦5.35bn	5%	17.4 yr
30 50m2	287,009	7,862	₦7.59bn	₦7.38bn	17%	6.4 yr
50 100m2	186,531	8,125	₦20.6bn	₦19.3bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	55,707	7,719	₦47bn	₦43.5bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	10,294	3,791	₦77.6bn	₦74.9bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	806	438	₦44.9bn	₦43.1bn	49%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	901,618	10,842	₦57.7bn	₦53.4bn	5%	18.1 yr
Urban Centre	354,160	18,312	₦60.5bn	₦59.6bn	23%	4.9 yr
Rural	289,239	9,289	₦25.1bn	₦24.2bn	7%	14.1 yr
Dense Urban	114,727	2,990	₦13.9bn	₦13.4bn	23%	4.9 yr
Urban	99,687	4,783	₦45.8bn	₦43bn	17%	6.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	1,251,935	15,149	₦4.12bn	₦4.12bn	5%	17.4 yr
Residential Small	155,375	8,282	₦22bn	₦20.4bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	126,662	3,916	₦13.5bn	₦13.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	111,815	598	₦2.36bn	₦2.33bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	84,851	8,202	₦102bn	₦95.6bn	23%	4.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	16,121	4,469	₦1.26bn	₦1.26bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	3,480	1,268	₦7.96bn	₦7.86bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	3,010	651	₦4.98bn	₦4.88bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	1,660	1,213	₦29.6bn	₦29.4bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	924	698	₦1.5bn	₦1.5bn	83%	1.4 yr
School	640	445	₦606m	₦606m	77%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	618	444	₦5.18bn	₦4.47bn	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	1,757,487	45,879	₦198bn	₦189bn
Farmland	748	71	₦1.48bn	₦555m
Retail	583	15	₦173m	₦173m
Industrial	482	207	₦3.67bn	₦3.55bn
Commercial	69	43	₦98.8m	₦98.8m
Farmyard	62	1	₦55.3m	₦55m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	1,749,525	41,842	₦148bn	₦140bn	7%	15.1 yr
SME High	6,531	1,921	₦13.1bn	₦12.9bn	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	3,375	2,453	₦42bn	₦40.2bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	1,234,656	15,181	₦4bn	₦4bn
2.0	174,608	9,809	₦25.7bn	₦23.3bn
3.0	134,382	12,632	₦135bn	₦129bn
4.0	117,397	2,357	₦21.5bn	₦21.2bn
1.0	94,954	5,235	₦6.88bn	₦5.99bn
5.0	3,048	832	₦4.7bn	₦4.68bn
6.0	386	170	₦5.21bn	₦5.04bn