Yobe State

Rooftop solar in Nangere, Yobe: what the roofs are worth

Nangere has 87,639 buildings with a viable rooftop and 324 MWp of roof capacity. 2% run a generator, and together they spend ₦4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

87,639

Usable roof area

1.49 km²

324 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦4bn/yr

3.48 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.1 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Nangere

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦3.95bn

Lifetime cash saved₦217bn

NPV₦29.8bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.1 yr

Unlocked energy4.85 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity31.8 MWp

Capex₦35.6bn

Year-one energy value₦38.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.79tn

NPV₦311bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Nangere's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 31.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦35.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦38.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦311bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Nangere pays back quickly

Of the 82,439 buildings in Nangere with a modelled payback, 13.4% pay back inside five years and 1.9% inside three.

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How much of Nangere's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Nangere consume 8.42 GWh/yr but want 13.3 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Nangere

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Nangere actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 82,439 buildings with a modelled result out of 87,639 in Nangere. 17,317 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,590 (2%)

Under 5 years11,043 (13%)

Under 7 years17,389 (21%)

Under 10 years22,298 (27%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%21,171 (24%)

Above 15%17,317 (20%)

Above 20%12,432 (14%)

Above 25%9,055 (10%)

CO₂ avoided

8.07 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.59 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

4.85 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

173k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Nangere.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Nangere

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	32,389	495	₦1.95bn	₦1.93bn	3%	18.1 yr
E	28,732	439	₦861m	₦861m	3%	18.4 yr
C	25,104	541	₦1.18bn	₦1.14bn	13%	7.4 yr
B	1,414	4	₦17.5m	₦17.5m	13%	7.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	86,691	894	₦2.43bn	₦2.38bn	5%	17.4 yr
Commercial Retail	535	322	₦51.6m	₦51.6m	55%	1.9 yr
Anchor	244	160	₦1.38bn	₦1.38bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	160	102	₦135m	₦135m	53%	1.9 yr
Worship	6	0	₦130k	₦130k	31%	3.6 yr
Industrial	3	1	₦737k	₦737k	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	67,410	819	₦227m	₦227m	3%	18.4 yr
30 50m2	13,696	273	₦275m	₦275m	9%	13.4 yr
50 100m2	5,158	154	₦485m	₦451m	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	1,067	123	₦683m	₦683m	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	288	103	₦1.44bn	₦1.42bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	20	7	₦895m	₦895m	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	46,929	421	₦1.08bn	₦1.04bn	3%	18.6 yr
Rural	21,957	916	₦2.01bn	₦1.99bn	5%	15.9 yr
Urban	12,514	138	₦858m	₦858m	13%	7.4 yr
Dense Urban	4,617	4	₦41.2m	₦41.2m	17%	6.4 yr
Urban Centre	1,622	0	₦11.5m	₦11.5m	15%	7.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	72,007	463	₦157m	₦157m	3%	18.1 yr
Residential Small	6,924	122	₦601m	₦567m	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	4,663	309	₦1.64bn	₦1.62bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	3,082	0	₦31m	₦31m	21%	5.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	535	322	₦51.6m	₦51.6m	55%	1.9 yr
Institutional	113	73	₦828m	₦828m	53%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	65	43	₦93m	₦93m	79%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	55	35	₦93.1m	₦93.1m	53%	1.9 yr
Hospital	45	31	₦297m	₦297m	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	42	31	₦32m	₦32m	57%	1.9 yr
Clinic	37	22	₦14.3m	₦14.3m	53%	2.1 yr
School	36	24	₦27.9m	₦27.9m	73%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	87,617	1,457	₦3.87bn	₦3.82bn
Industrial	22	22	₦129m	₦129m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	87,344	1,286	₦2.59bn	₦2.53bn	5%	17.1 yr
Enterprise	247	161	₦1.38bn	₦1.38bn	55%	1.9 yr
SME High	48	32	₦33.8m	₦33.8m	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	72,014	469	₦158m	₦158m
2.0	5,591	272	₦766m	₦766m
1.0	5,183	526	₦302m	₦302m
3.0	2,569	206	₦2.73bn	₦2.68bn
4.0	2,282	6	₦42.5m	₦42.5m