Yobe State

Rooftop solar in Gulani, Yobe: what the roofs are worth

Gulani has 116,110 buildings with a viable rooftop and 450 MWp of roof capacity. 1% run a generator, and together they spend ₦5.97bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

116,110

Usable roof area

2.06 km²

450 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦5.97bn/yr

5.15 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.9 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gulani

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦5.97bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦5.75bn

Lifetime cash saved₦320bn

NPV₦44.1bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback15.9 yr

Unlocked energy8.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity56.5 MWp

Capex₦62.1bn

Year-one energy value₦67.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.14tn

NPV₦546bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Gulani's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 56.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦62.1bn
Year 1 savings: ₦67.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦546bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gulani pays back quickly

Of the 115,198 buildings in Gulani with a modelled payback, 14.7% pay back inside five years and 1.3% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Gulani's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gulani consume 13.4 GWh/yr but want 21.8 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Gulani

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gulani actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 115,198 buildings with a modelled result out of 116,110 in Gulani. 25,556 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,452 (1%)

Under 5 years16,951 (15%)

Under 7 years25,660 (22%)

Under 10 years36,368 (32%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%32,851 (28%)

Above 15%25,556 (22%)

Above 20%18,850 (16%)

Above 25%14,578 (13%)

CO₂ avoided

12.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.13 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

8.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

285k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gulani.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Gulani

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	42,709	451	₦1.99bn	₦1.93bn	5%	17.4 yr
E	41,573	748	₦1.66bn	₦1.52bn	5%	16.6 yr
C	26,132	237	₦2.23bn	₦2.2bn	13%	7.9 yr
B	5,696	9	₦89.2m	₦89.2m	19%	5.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	115,812	1,224	₦3.42bn	₦3.23bn	5%	15.9 yr
Anchor	198	154	₦2.38bn	₦2.34bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	82	60	₦97.8m	₦97.8m	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	11	2	₦260k	₦260k	27%	3.9 yr
Industrial	7	5	₦72.9m	₦72.9m	55%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	85,677	666	₦236m	₦236m	5%	17.6 yr
30 50m2	19,243	309	₦414m	₦412m	11%	9.1 yr
50 100m2	9,625	233	₦882m	₦880m	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	1,252	123	₦663m	₦608m	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	266	87	₦1.69bn	₦1.56bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	47	27	₦2.08bn	₦2.05bn	59%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	59,444	511	₦3.68bn	₦3.61bn	3%	18.4 yr
Rural	36,999	898	₦1.56bn	₦1.44bn	9%	12.9 yr
Urban	19,667	36	₦725m	₦702m	11%	8.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	94,049	690	₦230m	₦230m	5%	17.1 yr
Residential Small	14,035	280	₦1.19bn	₦1.18bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	4,734	254	₦1.97bn	₦1.79bn	23%	4.9 yr
Residential Formal	2,993	0	₦34.8m	₦34.8m	21%	4.9 yr
Institutional	96	76	₦1.8bn	₦1.79bn	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	48	37	₦56.5m	₦56.5m	83%	1.4 yr
Hospital	46	36	₦220m	₦220m	53%	2.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	39	29	₦375m	₦351m	53%	2.1 yr
School	27	21	₦16.2m	₦16.2m	77%	1.4 yr
Clinic	19	13	₦12.3m	₦12.3m	49%	2.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	11	2	₦260k	₦260k	27%	3.9 yr
Industrial	4	3	₦68.3m	₦68.3m	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	116,072	1,445	₦5.97bn	₦5.75bn
Farmland	38	0	₦718k	₦718k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	115,906	1,288	₦3.58bn	₦3.4bn	5%	15.9 yr
Enterprise	201	156	₦2.38bn	₦2.35bn	57%	1.9 yr
SME High	3	1	₦431k	₦431k	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	94,049	690	₦230m	₦230m
2.0	9,642	337	₦898m	₦843m
3.0	5,489	266	₦4.38bn	₦4.22bn
1.0	4,694	150	₦360m	₦359m
4.0	2,235	1	₦35.4m	₦35.4m
5.0	1	1	₦63.1m	₦63.1m