Yobe State

Rooftop solar in Bursari, Yobe: what the roofs are worth

Bursari has 81,774 buildings with a viable rooftop and 331 MWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦6.13bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

81,774

Usable roof area

1.51 km²

331 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦6.13bn/yr

5.67 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.6 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bursari

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦6.13bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦5.88bn

Lifetime cash saved₦307bn

NPV₦46bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback15.6 yr

Unlocked energy5.02 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity32.5 MWp

Capex₦36.1bn

Year-one energy value₦39.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.86tn

NPV₦322bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Bursari's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 32.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦36.1bn
Year 1 savings: ₦39.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦322bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bursari pays back quickly

Of the 81,155 buildings in Bursari with a modelled payback, 15.4% pay back inside five years and 3.2% inside three.

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How much of Bursari's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bursari consume 10.4 GWh/yr but want 15.4 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Bursari

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bursari actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 81,155 buildings with a modelled result out of 81,774 in Bursari. 20,504 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,597 (3%)

Under 5 years12,500 (15%)

Under 7 years20,588 (25%)

Under 10 years27,427 (34%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%25,183 (31%)

Above 15%20,504 (25%)

Above 20%14,266 (17%)

Above 25%10,573 (13%)

CO₂ avoided

10.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.77 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

5.02 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

124k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bursari.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Bursari

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	34,391	1,170	₦2.16bn	₦2bn	5%	16.1 yr
D	28,081	436	₦1.93bn	₦1.93bn	5%	16.9 yr
C	14,831	723	₦1.96bn	₦1.88bn	17%	6.4 yr
B	4,471	17	₦74.3m	₦74.3m	19%	5.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	80,682	1,648	₦4.2bn	₦3.95bn	7%	15.6 yr
Commercial Retail	664	372	₦43.6m	₦43.6m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	224	144	₦191m	₦191m	39%	2.6 yr
Anchor	181	160	₦1.69bn	₦1.69bn	69%	1.6 yr
Worship	18	18	₦2.28m	₦2.28m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	5	4	₦1.84m	₦1.84m	71%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	60,276	1,195	₦263m	₦263m	5%	17.1 yr
30 50m2	13,472	397	₦287m	₦261m	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	6,477	317	₦641m	₦620m	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	1,271	278	₦1.37bn	₦1.26bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	253	140	₦2.4bn	₦2.31bn	65%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	25	19	₦1.17bn	₦1.17bn	71%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	47,813	854	₦3.22bn	₦3.02bn	5%	17.6 yr
Rural	20,256	840	₦949m	₦901m	9%	13.9 yr
Urban	8,767	637	₦1.88bn	₦1.88bn	19%	5.6 yr
Dense Urban	4,938	15	₦86.3m	₦86.3m	19%	5.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	64,082	973	₦198m	₦198m	5%	16.9 yr
Residential Small	8,464	271	₦743m	₦722m	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	8,136	404	₦3.26bn	₦3.03bn	17%	6.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	664	372	₦43.6m	₦43.6m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	125	61	₦60m	₦60m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	116	101	₦1.52bn	₦1.52bn	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	58	53	₦64.5m	₦64.5m	87%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	41	36	₦179m	₦179m	57%	1.9 yr
School	35	30	₦31.1m	₦31.1m	87%	1.1 yr
Clinic	28	25	₦30.5m	₦30.5m	55%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	6	6	₦556k	₦556k	61%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	6	6	₦354k	₦354k	63%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	81,774	2,346	₦6.13bn	₦5.88bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	81,461	2,121	₦4.37bn	₦4.13bn	7%	15.6 yr
Enterprise	186	164	₦1.69bn	₦1.69bn	69%	1.6 yr
SME High	127	61	₦62.5m	₦62.5m	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	64,088	979	₦198m	₦198m
2.0	8,789	409	₦979m	₦931m
1.0	5,921	510	₦240m	₦240m
3.0	2,961	437	₦4.69bn	₦4.49bn
4.0	15	11	₦25.9m	₦25.9m