Yobe State

Rooftop solar in Gujba, Yobe: what the roofs are worth

Gujba has 88,696 buildings with a viable rooftop and 407 MWp of roof capacity. 2% run a generator, and together they spend ₦17.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

88,696

Usable roof area

1.85 km²

407 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦17.1bn/yr

15.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.4 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gujba

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦17.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦15.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦813bn

NPV₦127bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback15.4 yr

Unlocked energy9.64 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity54.6 MWp

Capex₦59.5bn

Year-one energy value₦61.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.91tn

NPV₦503bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Gujba's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 54.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦59.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦61.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦503bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gujba pays back quickly

Of the 87,223 buildings in Gujba with a modelled payback, 25.9% pay back inside five years and 2.3% inside three.

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How much of Gujba's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gujba consume 26.5 GWh/yr but want 36.2 GWh/yr. The 27% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gujba

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gujba actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 87,223 buildings with a modelled result out of 88,696 in Gujba. 31,296 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,030 (2%)

Under 5 years22,575 (26%)

Under 7 years31,380 (36%)

Under 10 years36,444 (42%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%35,150 (40%)

Above 15%31,296 (35%)

Above 20%24,802 (28%)

Above 25%18,759 (21%)

CO₂ avoided

27.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.06 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.64 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

231k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gujba.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Gujba

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	31,344	791	₦5.2bn	₦4.86bn	5%	17.9 yr
E	23,982	271	₦4.47bn	₦4.12bn	3%	18.4 yr
B	20,668	287	₦2.75bn	₦2.23bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	12,702	653	₦4.64bn	₦4.52bn	13%	7.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	88,273	1,666	₦13.4bn	₦12.6bn	7%	15.6 yr
Commercial Retail	202	198	₦15.1m	₦15.1m	63%	1.6 yr
Anchor	142	95	₦3.52bn	₦2.94bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	70	40	₦125m	₦125m	39%	2.6 yr
Industrial	5	2	₦2m	₦2m	41%	2.6 yr
Worship	2	0	₦467k	₦467k	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦8.41m	₦8.41m	39%	2.6 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦833k	₦833k	81%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	61,862	772	₦237m	₦236m	3%	18.1 yr
30 50m2	15,299	357	₦419m	₦419m	21%	5.1 yr
50 100m2	9,414	361	₦1.39bn	₦1.27bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	1,646	292	₦3.61bn	₦3.32bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	425	189	₦7.42bn	₦7.01bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	50	31	₦3.98bn	₦3.47bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	43,740	700	₦5.19bn	₦4.73bn	3%	19.4 yr
Dense Urban	24,194	361	₦2.5bn	₦2.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	19,469	755	₦6.15bn	₦5.87bn	7%	14.4 yr
Urban	1,293	186	₦3.22bn	₦2.63bn	25%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	61,971	831	₦198m	₦198m	3%	18.1 yr
Residential Formal	13,734	2	₦334m	₦334m	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	7,482	364	₦1.49bn	₦1.38bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	2,611	96	₦255m	₦255m	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	2,445	373	₦11.1bn	₦10.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	202	198	₦15.1m	₦15.1m	63%	1.6 yr
Institutional	75	47	₦2.01bn	₦2.01bn	53%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	47	30	₦49.8m	₦49.8m	77%	1.4 yr
School	31	19	₦33.5m	₦33.5m	73%	1.4 yr
Apartment	27	0	₦1.96m	₦1.96m	31%	3.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	23	16	₦1.26bn	₦740m	55%	1.9 yr
Clinic	13	8	₦209m	₦148m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	88,696	2,002	₦17.1bn	₦15.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	88,543	1,899	₦13.5bn	₦12.8bn	7%	15.4 yr
Enterprise	144	96	₦3.52bn	₦2.94bn	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	9	7	₦6.07m	₦6.07m	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	61,972	832	₦198m	₦198m
4.0	10,536	42	₦724m	₦724m
2.0	7,086	371	₦2.36bn	₦2.13bn
3.0	5,911	490	₦13.3bn	₦12.3bn
1.0	3,190	267	₦481m	₦378m
5.0	1	0	₦8.41m	₦8.41m