Yobe State

Rooftop solar in Jakusko, Yobe: what the roofs are worth

Jakusko has 120,308 buildings with a viable rooftop and 430 MWp of roof capacity. 2% run a generator, and together they spend ₦9.56bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

120,308

Usable roof area

1.97 km²

430 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦9.56bn/yr

7.77 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.1 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Jakusko

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦9.56bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦8.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦443bn

NPV₦65.3bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.1 yr

Unlocked energy6.92 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity52.7 MWp

Capex₦58.9bn

Year-one energy value₦66.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.13tn

NPV₦544bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Jakusko's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 52.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦58.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦66.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦544bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Jakusko pays back quickly

Of the 118,165 buildings in Jakusko with a modelled payback, 15.4% pay back inside five years and 1.6% inside three.

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How much of Jakusko's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Jakusko consume 15.8 GWh/yr but want 22.8 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Jakusko

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Jakusko actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 118,165 buildings with a modelled result out of 120,308 in Jakusko. 27,151 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,947 (2%)

Under 5 years18,210 (15%)

Under 7 years27,286 (23%)

Under 10 years34,898 (30%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%32,687 (27%)

Above 15%27,151 (23%)

Above 20%20,012 (17%)

Above 25%15,814 (13%)

CO₂ avoided

16 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.11 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

6.92 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

275k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Jakusko.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Jakusko

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	50,459	948	₦4.78bn	₦3.87bn	5%	17.9 yr
E	41,440	568	₦1.57bn	₦1.53bn	3%	18.6 yr
C	20,797	265	₦2.08bn	₦2bn	11%	8.4 yr
B	7,612	144	₦1.13bn	₦999m	21%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	119,839	1,547	₦8.29bn	₦7.13bn	5%	17.1 yr
Anchor	286	246	₦1.16bn	₦1.16bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	125	110	₦108m	₦108m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	35	3	₦984k	₦984k	35%	3.1 yr
Worship	17	14	₦1.55m	₦1.55m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	5	4	₦2.47m	₦2.47m	75%	1.4 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦73.8k	₦73.8k	39%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	92,724	916	₦330m	₦329m	3%	18.9 yr
30 50m2	16,571	321	₦396m	₦396m	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	9,127	305	₦1.39bn	₦1.26bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	1,635	255	₦2.95bn	₦2.06bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	243	122	₦3.31bn	₦3.16bn	43%	2.4 yr
Over 1000m2	8	6	₦1.19bn	₦1.19bn	71%	1.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	82,038	1,131	₦6.58bn	₦5.44bn	3%	19.4 yr
Rural	26,079	557	₦1.02bn	₦1.01bn	9%	9.6 yr
Dense Urban	7,485	131	₦859m	₦849m	21%	5.1 yr
Urban	4,706	106	₦1.11bn	₦1.1bn	17%	6.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	96,348	723	₦230m	₦230m	3%	18.6 yr
Residential Small	11,265	323	₦1.6bn	₦1.47bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	9,576	500	₦6.42bn	₦5.39bn	23%	4.9 yr
Residential Formal	2,648	0	₦33.1m	₦33.1m	21%	5.1 yr
Institutional	127	114	₦917m	₦917m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	79	72	₦83.5m	₦83.5m	85%	1.1 yr
Hospital	61	48	₦77.2m	₦77.2m	55%	1.9 yr
School	56	48	₦20.7m	₦20.7m	81%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	46	40	₦143m	₦143m	55%	1.9 yr
Clinic	41	35	₦24.6m	₦24.4m	55%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	35	3	₦984k	₦984k	35%	3.1 yr
Worship Center	6	5	₦336k	₦336k	61%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	120,146	1,893	₦8.28bn	₦7.91bn
Farmland	117	5	₦841m	₦59.8m
Industrial	45	27	₦437m	₦428m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	120,013	1,674	₦8.4bn	₦7.23bn	5%	17.1 yr
Enterprise	291	250	₦1.16bn	₦1.16bn	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	4	1	₦2.03m	₦2.03m	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	96,356	728	₦230m	₦230m
2.0	10,158	550	₦2.59bn	₦1.71bn
1.0	8,676	337	₦812m	₦689m
3.0	3,390	309	₦5.9bn	₦5.74bn
4.0	1,728	1	₦30m	₦30m