Yobe State

Rooftop solar in Geidam, Yobe: what the roofs are worth

Geidam has 102,266 buildings with a viable rooftop and 463 MWp of roof capacity. 2% run a generator, and together they spend ₦6.23bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

102,266

Usable roof area

2.11 km²

463 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦6.23bn/yr

5.06 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.9 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Geidam

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦6.23bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦6.23bn

Lifetime cash saved₦344bn

NPV₦47.8bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback15.9 yr

Unlocked energy6.44 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity41.4 MWp

Capex₦45.3bn

Year-one energy value₦45.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.15tn

NPV₦369bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Geidam's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 41.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦45.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦45.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦369bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Geidam pays back quickly

Of the 101,596 buildings in Geidam with a modelled payback, 17.3% pay back inside five years and 2.8% inside three.

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How much of Geidam's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Geidam consume 13.6 GWh/yr but want 20.1 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Geidam

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Geidam actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 101,596 buildings with a modelled result out of 102,266 in Geidam. 27,786 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,866 (3%)

Under 5 years17,618 (17%)

Under 7 years27,923 (27%)

Under 10 years36,831 (36%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%34,799 (34%)

Above 15%27,786 (27%)

Above 20%19,955 (20%)

Above 25%14,185 (14%)

CO₂ avoided

12.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.47 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

6.44 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

189k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Geidam.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Geidam

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	31,956	629	₦789m	₦789m	5%	17.6 yr
B	27,652	532	₦3.11bn	₦3.11bn	19%	5.6 yr
E	26,509	137	₦874m	₦871m	5%	17.9 yr
C	16,149	829	₦1.46bn	₦1.46bn	9%	9.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	100,911	1,861	₦3.93bn	₦3.93bn	5%	16.1 yr
Commercial Retail	680	84	₦23.9m	₦23.9m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	495	57	₦242m	₦242m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	143	96	₦1.19bn	₦1.18bn	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	22	22	₦843m	₦843m	71%	1.4 yr
Worship	8	2	₦243k	₦243k	17%	4.9 yr
Hospitality	6	5	₦3.41m	₦3.41m	61%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	1	0	₦36.4k	₦36.4k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	73,860	1,013	₦257m	₦257m	5%	17.4 yr
30 50m2	14,417	392	₦334m	₦334m	15%	7.1 yr
50 100m2	10,804	302	₦792m	₦792m	27%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	2,775	275	₦1.4bn	₦1.4bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	394	137	₦2.16bn	₦2.15bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	16	8	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn	35%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	61,956	493	₦1.5bn	₦1.5bn	5%	17.9 yr
Urban Centre	30,345	532	₦2.69bn	₦2.69bn	19%	5.6 yr
Rural	6,891	785	₦586m	₦582m	11%	8.6 yr
Urban	3,074	317	₦1.46bn	₦1.46bn	11%	9.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	72,590	1,064	₦218m	₦218m	5%	17.4 yr
Residential Formal	12,657	0	₦140m	₦140m	17%	5.9 yr
Residential Small	7,630	421	₦888m	₦888m	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	4,322	97	₦461m	₦461m	19%	5.6 yr
Residential	3,709	279	₦2.22bn	₦2.22bn	21%	5.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	679	84	₦23.9m	₦23.9m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	396	10	₦137m	₦137m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	71	49	₦843m	₦843m	53%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	36	24	₦321m	₦317m	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial	31	0	₦2.75m	₦2.75m	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	30	22	₦48.6m	₦48.6m	81%	1.4 yr
School	26	17	₦36m	₦36m	79%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	102,217	2,127	₦6.23bn	₦6.22bn
Farmyard	34	0	₦1.6m	₦1.6m
Farmland	15	0	₦301k	₦301k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	101,666	1,994	₦4.06bn	₦4.06bn	5%	15.9 yr
SME High	436	15	₦144m	₦144m	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	164	118	₦2.03bn	₦2.03bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	70,847	1,068	₦213m	₦213m
4.0	10,898	48	₦1.26bn	₦1.26bn
2.0	7,892	393	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn
3.0	7,616	389	₦3.01bn	₦3.01bn
1.0	4,802	227	₦271m	₦271m
5.0	197	1	₦72.7m	₦72.7m
6.0	14	1	₦400m	₦400m