Yobe State

Rooftop solar in Yusufari, Yobe: what the roofs are worth

Yusufari has 102,569 buildings with a viable rooftop and 289 MWp of roof capacity. 1% run a generator, and together they spend ₦4.36bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

102,569

Usable roof area

1.31 km²

289 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦4.36bn/yr

4.01 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.9 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Yusufari

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦4.36bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦4.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦224bn

NPV₦30.8bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.9 yr

Unlocked energy4.05 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity29.6 MWp

Capex₦33.8bn

Year-one energy value₦36.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.73tn

NPV₦300bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Yusufari's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 29.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦33.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦36.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦300bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Yusufari pays back quickly

Of the 102,197 buildings in Yusufari with a modelled payback, 8.0% pay back inside five years and 0.6% inside three.

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How much of Yusufari's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Yusufari consume 8.43 GWh/yr but want 12.5 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Yusufari

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Yusufari actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 102,197 buildings with a modelled result out of 102,569 in Yusufari. 13,396 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years607 (1%)

Under 5 years8,179 (8%)

Under 7 years13,451 (13%)

Under 10 years17,026 (17%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%15,789 (15%)

Above 15%13,396 (13%)

Above 20%9,624 (9%)

Above 25%6,535 (6%)

CO₂ avoided

7.98 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.78 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

4.05 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

129k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Yusufari.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Yusufari

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	46,414	275	₦1.42bn	₦1.31bn	5%	18.1 yr
E	38,970	114	₦990m	₦989m	3%	18.4 yr
C	11,494	178	₦1.69bn	₦1.65bn	5%	16.9 yr
B	5,691	32	₦252m	₦252m	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	102,394	458	₦2.66bn	₦2.51bn	5%	17.9 yr
Anchor	99	84	₦1.61bn	₦1.61bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	64	48	₦86.7m	₦86.7m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	6	6	₦1.83m	₦1.83m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	4	2	₦1.63m	₦1.63m	41%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1	1	₦314k	₦314k	59%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦13.1k	₦13.1k	29%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	88,858	257	₦187m	₦187m	3%	18.4 yr
30 50m2	8,420	64	₦123m	₦123m	9%	13.1 yr
50 100m2	4,191	73	₦377m	₦377m	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	896	123	₦921m	₦800m	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	187	72	₦1.26bn	₦1.22bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	17	10	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn	67%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	76,891	310	₦2.19bn	₦2.07bn	3%	18.6 yr
Rural	17,915	168	₦455m	₦455m	5%	16.6 yr
Dense Urban	6,920	31	₦269m	₦269m	21%	5.1 yr
Urban	843	90	₦1.45bn	₦1.41bn	21%	5.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	91,120	255	₦186m	₦186m	3%	18.4 yr
Residential	5,126	143	₦2.01bn	₦1.85bn	13%	7.4 yr
Residential Small	4,730	60	₦431m	₦431m	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	1,418	0	₦39.3m	₦39.3m	29%	3.6 yr
Institutional	61	49	₦1.4bn	₦1.4bn	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	26	23	₦38m	₦38m	83%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	23	19	₦206m	₦206m	55%	1.9 yr
Clinic	17	14	₦10.6m	₦10.6m	53%	1.9 yr
School	14	11	₦11m	₦11m	75%	1.4 yr
Hospital	13	11	₦13.4m	₦13.4m	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial	8	6	₦13.6m	₦13.6m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial Site	4	2	₦1.63m	₦1.63m	41%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	102,527	599	₦4.36bn	₦4.2bn
Farmland	42	0	₦894k	₦894k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	102,463	509	₦2.74bn	₦2.58bn	5%	17.9 yr
Enterprise	102	86	₦1.61bn	₦1.61bn	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	4	4	₦13.4m	₦13.4m	59%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	91,123	257	₦186m	₦186m
2.0	5,734	124	₦667m	₦626m
1.0	3,649	57	₦128m	₦128m
3.0	1,928	159	₦3.35bn	₦3.24bn
4.0	135	2	₦24.8m	₦24.8m