Yobe State

Rooftop solar in Bade, Yobe: what the roofs are worth

Bade has 82,736 buildings with a viable rooftop and 591 MWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦16bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

82,736

Usable roof area

2.67 km²

591 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦16bn/yr

13.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.4 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bade

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦16bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦15.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦821bn

NPV₦124bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback5.4 yr

Unlocked energy9.97 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity57.5 MWp

Capex₦62.3bn

Year-one energy value₦60.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.88tn

NPV₦492bn

Median IRR83%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Bade's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 57.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦62.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦60.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦492bn
Median IRR: 83%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bade pays back quickly

Of the 81,807 buildings in Bade with a modelled payback, 45.2% pay back inside five years and 4.2% inside three.

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How much of Bade's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bade consume 28 GWh/yr but want 38 GWh/yr. The 26% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Bade

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bade actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 81,807 buildings with a modelled result out of 82,736 in Bade. 52,896 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,469 (4%)

Under 5 years36,941 (45%)

Under 7 years53,022 (65%)

Under 10 years60,700 (74%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%59,274 (72%)

Above 15%52,896 (64%)

Above 20%41,991 (51%)

Above 25%28,533 (34%)

CO₂ avoided

28.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

7.49 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.97 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

227k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bade.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Bade

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	29,397	1,342	₦8.04bn	₦7.77bn	21%	4.9 yr
B	21,713	845	₦3.28bn	₦3.27bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	12,968	120	₦1.22bn	₦1.06bn	5%	16.4 yr
D	9,879	715	₦2.08bn	₦2.08bn	7%	15.4 yr
C	8,779	381	₦1.42bn	₦1.42bn	19%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	82,379	3,193	₦12.5bn	₦12.1bn	21%	5.4 yr
Anchor	179	119	₦3.06bn	₦2.99bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	138	72	₦324m	₦324m	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	15	12	₦2.65m	₦2.65m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	12	2	₦5.87m	₦5.87m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	7	4	₦147m	₦145m	65%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	3	1	₦2.15m	₦2.15m	39%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	2	0	₦422k	₦422k	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1	0	₦15k	₦15k	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	43,000	1,164	₦425m	₦424m	11%	8.9 yr
30 50m2	17,111	508	₦564m	₦561m	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	16,482	706	₦1.91bn	₦1.91bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	5,300	693	₦3.85bn	₦3.63bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	790	300	₦5.89bn	₦5.68bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	53	32	₦3.4bn	₦3.4bn	69%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	50,767	2,181	₦9.92bn	₦9.85bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	16,603	622	₦3.01bn	₦2.65bn	5%	17.9 yr
Rural	10,322	106	₦981m	₦962m	9%	13.1 yr
Urban	5,044	494	₦2.14bn	₦2.14bn	21%	5.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	38,287	890	₦251m	₦251m	9%	9.9 yr
Residential Informal	21,532	8	₦520m	₦520m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	9,274	1,367	₦2.59bn	₦2.37bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Formal	8,547	0	₦203m	₦203m	25%	4.1 yr
Residential	4,733	928	₦8.94bn	₦8.78bn	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	103	73	₦2.71bn	₦2.71bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	59	41	₦116m	₦116m	85%	1.1 yr
School	50	32	₦57.1m	₦57.1m	79%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	30	18	₦162m	₦159m	53%	2.1 yr
Unknown	27	10	₦43m	₦43m	33%	3.4 yr
Clinic	22	13	₦12.9m	₦12.9m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial	19	3	₦66.3m	₦66.3m	37%	2.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	82,565	3,385	₦15.7bn	₦15.4bn
Farmland	152	18	₦360m	₦220m
Commercial	11	0	₦196k	₦196k
Industrial	6	0	₦89k	₦89k
Farmyard	2	0	₦22k	₦22k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	82,535	3,278	₦12.9bn	₦12.5bn	21%	5.4 yr
Enterprise	191	121	₦3.06bn	₦3bn	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	10	4	₦70.4m	₦70.4m	39%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	33,508	892	₦213m	₦213m
2.0	15,398	846	₦1.8bn	₦1.8bn
3.0	13,414	1,382	₦12.8bn	₦12.4bn
4.0	11,052	5	₦700m	₦700m
1.0	9,356	277	₦446m	₦445m
5.0	8	1	₦58.2m	₦58.2m