Yobe State

Rooftop solar in Potiskum, Yobe: what the roofs are worth

Potiskum has 176,978 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.39 GWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦31.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

176,978

Usable roof area

6.3 km²

1.39 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦31.2bn/yr

24.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.4 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Potiskum

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦31.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦30.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.67tn

NPV₦244bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback5.4 yr

Unlocked energy29.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity130 MWp

Capex₦138bn

Year-one energy value₦114bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.38tn

NPV₦900bn

Median IRR81%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Potiskum's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 130 MWp
Capital cost: ₦138bn
Year 1 savings: ₦114bn/yr
NPV: ₦900bn
Median IRR: 81%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Potiskum pays back quickly

Of the 175,722 buildings in Potiskum with a modelled payback, 44.3% pay back inside five years and 5.7% inside three.

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How much of Potiskum's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Potiskum consume 67.7 GWh/yr but want 97.4 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Potiskum

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Potiskum actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 175,722 buildings with a modelled result out of 176,978 in Potiskum. 122,282 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,090 (6%)

Under 5 years77,902 (44%)

Under 7 years122,869 (70%)

Under 10 years150,180 (85%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%146,830 (83%)

Above 15%122,282 (69%)

Above 20%88,499 (50%)

Above 25%61,067 (35%)

CO₂ avoided

60.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

12.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

29.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

407k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Potiskum.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Potiskum

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	93,772	4,792	₦19.4bn	₦19bn	19%	5.4 yr
A	47,582	1,999	₦5.25bn	₦5.23bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	19,368	591	₦3.27bn	₦3.25bn	21%	5.4 yr
D	9,049	252	₦1.42bn	₦1.42bn	5%	16.9 yr
E	7,207	320	₦1.84bn	₦1.79bn	5%	16.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	172,312	6,505	₦20.6bn	₦20.4bn	19%	5.4 yr
Commercial Retail	2,946	860	₦245m	₦245m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	1,404	439	₦4.1bn	₦3.93bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	279	138	₦6.23bn	₦6.09bn	49%	2.1 yr
Industrial	15	6	₦4.46m	₦4.46m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	9	2	₦16m	₦16m	37%	2.9 yr
Worship	8	2	₦1.02m	₦1.02m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	4	2	₦8.37m	₦8.37m	37%	2.1 yr
Mall Retail	1	0	₦61.2k	₦61.2k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	76,949	2,740	₦804m	₦802m	13%	7.4 yr
30 50m2	47,839	1,614	₦1.36bn	₦1.35bn	21%	5.1 yr
50 100m2	37,972	1,627	₦3.07bn	₦3.03bn	29%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	12,114	1,361	₦7.45bn	₦7.31bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,936	532	₦9.18bn	₦9.08bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	168	80	₦9.36bn	₦9.08bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	146,791	6,161	₦21.1bn	₦20.6bn	21%	5.1 yr
Unclassified	14,502	707	₦4.88bn	₦4.78bn	5%	16.6 yr
Urban	10,511	462	₦2.7bn	₦2.69bn	15%	6.6 yr
Rural	5,174	624	₦2.58bn	₦2.54bn	7%	14.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	76,568	1,922	₦551m	₦551m	15%	6.9 yr
Residential Informal	59,507	2,400	₦8.87bn	₦8.86bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	18,868	593	₦693m	₦693m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	13,505	891	₦1.84bn	₦1.77bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	3,845	699	₦8.66bn	₦8.47bn	31%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,946	860	₦245m	₦245m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	780	208	₦2.47bn	₦2.37bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	442	172	₦1.23bn	₦1.17bn	39%	2.9 yr
Institutional	144	77	₦5.54bn	₦5.42bn	41%	2.6 yr
Unknown	70	16	₦28.5m	₦28.5m	33%	3.4 yr
Educational Facility	65	32	₦196m	₦196m	51%	2.1 yr
School	62	25	₦127m	₦127m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	176,740	7,887	₦30.5bn	₦29.9bn
Industrial	238	67	₦726m	₦726m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	175,460	7,433	₦21.3bn	₦21bn	19%	5.4 yr
SME High	1,236	383	₦3.73bn	₦3.56bn	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	282	138	₦6.23bn	₦6.09bn	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	67,868	1,905	₦491m	₦491m
3.0	34,533	2,122	₦13.6bn	₦13.4bn
4.0	30,480	1,611	₦11.2bn	₦11.1bn
2.0	29,743	1,481	₦2.44bn	₦2.37bn
1.0	13,852	702	₦434m	₦434m
5.0	445	101	₦1.15bn	₦1.15bn
6.0	57	32	₦1.89bn	₦1.73bn