Yobe State

Rooftop solar in Karasuwa, Yobe: what the roofs are worth

Karasuwa has 59,458 buildings with a viable rooftop and 200 MWp of roof capacity. 2% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.22bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

59,458

Usable roof area

899,101 m²

200 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.22bn/yr

6.64 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.6 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Karasuwa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.22bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.06bn

Lifetime cash saved₦365bn

NPV₦55.5bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.6 yr

Unlocked energy3.86 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity25.8 MWp

Capex₦28.4bn

Year-one energy value₦29.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.41tn

NPV₦244bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Karasuwa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 25.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦28.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦29.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦244bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Karasuwa pays back quickly

Of the 59,133 buildings in Karasuwa with a modelled payback, 13.2% pay back inside five years and 2.5% inside three.

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How much of Karasuwa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Karasuwa consume 11.8 GWh/yr but want 15.7 GWh/yr. The 25% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Karasuwa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Karasuwa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 59,133 buildings with a modelled result out of 59,458 in Karasuwa. 13,183 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,462 (2%)

Under 5 years7,818 (13%)

Under 7 years13,225 (22%)

Under 10 years16,531 (28%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%15,980 (27%)

Above 15%13,183 (22%)

Above 20%8,961 (15%)

Above 25%6,862 (12%)

CO₂ avoided

12.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.44 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

3.86 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

105k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Karasuwa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Karasuwa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	20,280	114	₦726m	₦717m	3%	18.6 yr
D	19,928	285	₦644m	₦574m	3%	18.6 yr
C	13,578	703	₦2.53bn	₦2.45bn	9%	12.9 yr
B	5,672	342	₦3.32bn	₦3.32bn	21%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	58,729	848	₦5.1bn	₦4.94bn	5%	17.6 yr
Commercial Retail	472	375	₦24.3m	₦24.3m	45%	2.4 yr
Anchor	150	130	₦1.93bn	₦1.93bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	102	87	₦163m	₦163m	53%	2.1 yr
Worship	3	3	₦195k	₦195k	51%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦73.8k	₦73.8k	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	1	1	₦3.2m	₦3.2m	69%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	49,631	680	₦171m	₦171m	3%	18.4 yr
30 50m2	5,144	194	₦138m	₦138m	17%	6.1 yr
50 100m2	3,616	210	₦522m	₦513m	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	812	190	₦1.39bn	₦1.25bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	237	156	₦3.07bn	₦3.06bn	79%	1.4 yr
Over 1000m2	18	14	₦1.93bn	₦1.93bn	77%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	37,335	344	₦1.48bn	₦1.33bn	3%	18.9 yr
Rural	15,542	687	₦1.53bn	₦1.53bn	9%	13.6 yr
Dense Urban	4,130	152	₦502m	₦502m	21%	5.1 yr
Urban	2,224	132	₦2.24bn	₦2.24bn	19%	5.4 yr
Urban Centre	227	129	₦1.46bn	₦1.46bn	75%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	49,318	327	₦134m	₦134m	3%	18.4 yr
Residential Small	5,275	196	₦627m	₦618m	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	4,136	325	₦4.33bn	₦4.19bn	17%	6.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	472	375	₦24.3m	₦24.3m	45%	2.4 yr
Institutional	77	66	₦1.57bn	₦1.57bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	49	45	₦112m	₦112m	83%	1.4 yr
School	30	25	₦70.7m	₦70.7m	77%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	25	21	₦271m	₦264m	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial	24	20	₦8.54m	₦8.54m	47%	2.4 yr
Hospital	22	17	₦32.6m	₦32.6m	53%	1.9 yr
Clinic	16	15	₦4.81m	₦4.81m	53%	1.9 yr
Unknown	4	3	₦21.4m	₦21.4m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	59,458	1,444	₦7.22bn	₦7.06bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	59,279	1,290	₦5.27bn	₦5.12bn	5%	17.6 yr
Enterprise	151	131	₦1.94bn	₦1.93bn	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	28	23	₦10.3m	₦10.3m	47%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	49,321	330	₦135m	₦135m
2.0	4,621	231	₦847m	₦767m
1.0	3,268	494	₦172m	₦172m
3.0	2,246	387	₦6.06bn	₦5.98bn
4.0	2	2	₦3.01m	₦3.01m