Yobe State

Rooftop solar in Nguru, Yobe: what the roofs are worth

Nguru has 77,521 buildings with a viable rooftop and 538 MWp of roof capacity. 5% run a generator, and together they spend ₦31.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

77,521

Usable roof area

2.42 km²

538 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦31.9bn/yr

26.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.9 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Nguru

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦31.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦30.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.55tn

NPV₦247bn

Median IRR15%

Median payback6.9 yr

Unlocked energy10.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity64.8 MWp

Capex₦69.8bn

Year-one energy value₦69.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.26tn

NPV₦558bn

Median IRR89%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Nguru's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 64.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦69.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦69.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦558bn
Median IRR: 89%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Nguru pays back quickly

Of the 76,995 buildings in Nguru with a modelled payback, 34.4% pay back inside five years and 5.2% inside three.

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How much of Nguru's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Nguru consume 43.8 GWh/yr but want 54.7 GWh/yr. The 20% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Nguru

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Nguru actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 76,995 buildings with a modelled result out of 77,521 in Nguru. 38,858 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,994 (5%)

Under 5 years26,483 (34%)

Under 7 years39,024 (51%)

Under 10 years47,662 (62%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%46,242 (60%)

Above 15%38,858 (50%)

Above 20%29,184 (38%)

Above 25%21,588 (28%)

CO₂ avoided

51.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

17 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

218k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Nguru.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Nguru

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	25,490	1,284	₦6.57bn	₦6.56bn	21%	4.9 yr
B	19,171	1,319	₦6.77bn	₦6.58bn	21%	4.9 yr
D	15,216	125	₦2bn	₦1.91bn	5%	17.4 yr
E	12,753	721	₦8.8bn	₦8.48bn	5%	17.4 yr
C	4,891	327	₦7.79bn	₦6.98bn	15%	7.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	77,014	3,619	₦29.4bn	₦28bn	15%	6.9 yr
Commercial General	193	57	₦542m	₦542m	39%	2.9 yr
Anchor	186	73	₦1.97bn	₦1.94bn	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	101	14	₦9.53m	₦9.53m	37%	2.9 yr
Worship	13	3	₦5.85m	₦5.85m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	6	5	₦968k	₦968k	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	3	1	₦292k	₦292k	39%	2.6 yr
Productive Use	3	3	₦613k	₦613k	69%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	1	1	₦260k	₦260k	67%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	1	0	₦142k	₦142k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	46,570	1,347	₦377m	₦369m	7%	15.6 yr
50 100m2	13,452	644	₦1.47bn	₦1.45bn	29%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	11,099	462	₦377m	₦366m	21%	5.4 yr
100 250m2	5,427	847	₦7.09bn	₦6.73bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	921	449	₦19.9bn	₦18.9bn	49%	2.1 yr
Over 1000m2	52	27	₦2.68bn	₦2.65bn	41%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	43,253	2,126	₦9.99bn	₦9.82bn	21%	5.1 yr
Unclassified	20,205	428	₦6.74bn	₦6.55bn	5%	17.6 yr
Rural	12,362	505	₦588m	₦581m	7%	15.6 yr
Urban	1,701	717	₦14.6bn	₦13.6bn	31%	3.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	39,989	1,136	₦240m	₦240m	5%	16.1 yr
Residential Informal	16,804	873	₦2.44bn	₦2.44bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	10,229	0	₦147m	₦147m	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Small	5,846	744	₦1.83bn	₦1.8bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	4,050	866	₦24.7bn	₦23.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	102	15	₦9.61m	₦9.61m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	92	39	₦1.72bn	₦1.69bn	35%	3.1 yr
Apartment	73	0	₦5.29m	₦5.29m	31%	3.4 yr
Educational Facility	60	22	₦48.9m	₦48.9m	49%	2.1 yr
School	47	15	₦22.4m	₦22.4m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	45	1	₦78.6m	₦78.6m	39%	2.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	34	15	₦321m	₦317m	33%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	77,327	3,750	₦31.7bn	₦30.3bn
Farmland	193	26	₦206m	₦206m
Farmyard	1	0	₦1.75k	₦1.75k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	77,273	3,688	₦29.8bn	₦28.4bn	15%	6.9 yr
Enterprise	189	74	₦1.97bn	₦1.94bn	49%	2.1 yr
SME High	59	14	₦126m	₦126m	39%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	38,628	1,124	₦231m	₦231m
3.0	11,485	1,413	₦27.2bn	₦25.8bn
2.0	11,167	777	₦1.69bn	₦1.65bn
4.0	11,141	222	₦2.51bn	₦2.51bn
1.0	5,089	240	₦296m	₦280m
5.0	11	0	₦35.7m	₦35.7m