Yobe State

Rooftop solar in Tarmuwa, Yobe: what the roofs are worth

Tarmuwa has 64,331 buildings with a viable rooftop and 210 MWp of roof capacity. 1% run a generator, and together they spend ₦2.78bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

64,331

Usable roof area

967,343 m²

210 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦2.78bn/yr

2.22 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.6 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Tarmuwa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦2.78bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦2.59bn

Lifetime cash saved₦139bn

NPV₦18.8bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.6 yr

Unlocked energy2.56 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity19.1 MWp

Capex₦21.8bn

Year-one energy value₦23.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.1tn

NPV₦191bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Tarmuwa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 19.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦21.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦23.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦191bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Tarmuwa pays back quickly

Of the 63,914 buildings in Tarmuwa with a modelled payback, 9.9% pay back inside five years and 1.1% inside three.

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How much of Tarmuwa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Tarmuwa consume 5.3 GWh/yr but want 7.87 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Tarmuwa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Tarmuwa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 63,914 buildings with a modelled result out of 64,331 in Tarmuwa. 9,852 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years723 (1%)

Under 5 years6,326 (10%)

Under 7 years9,889 (15%)

Under 10 years11,804 (18%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%11,130 (17%)

Above 15%9,852 (15%)

Above 20%7,252 (11%)

Above 25%5,260 (8%)

CO₂ avoided

5.14 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.14 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

2.56 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

79.7k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Tarmuwa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Tarmuwa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	25,387	285	₦659m	₦475m	3%	18.4 yr
E	23,817	91	₦276m	₦276m	5%	18.1 yr
C	12,664	280	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	7%	14.9 yr
B	2,463	64	₦756m	₦751m	23%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	64,141	549	₦2.17bn	₦1.98bn	5%	17.9 yr
Anchor	113	101	₦549m	₦544m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	55	48	₦63.1m	₦63.1m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	20	20	₦1m	₦1m	39%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	1	1	₦265k	₦265k	49%	2.1 yr
Industrial	1	1	₦318k	₦318k	73%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	53,074	361	₦121m	₦121m	3%	18.4 yr
30 50m2	6,966	98	₦109m	₦109m	9%	9.9 yr
50 100m2	3,534	110	₦326m	₦326m	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	612	78	₦737m	₦552m	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	140	72	₦1.42bn	₦1.42bn	47%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	5	1	₦62.3m	₦62.3m	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	51,301	371	₦1.06bn	₦879m	3%	18.6 yr
Rural	7,118	90	₦258m	₦258m	7%	14.4 yr
Dense Urban	5,151	187	₦755m	₦750m	21%	4.9 yr
Urban	761	72	₦702m	₦702m	19%	5.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	56,927	366	₦129m	₦129m	5%	18.1 yr
Residential Small	5,252	96	₦386m	₦386m	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	1,962	87	₦1.65bn	₦1.47bn	17%	6.1 yr
Institutional	49	42	₦61.4m	₦61.4m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	32	29	₦48m	₦48m	89%	1.1 yr
Hospital	27	22	₦293m	₦289m	57%	1.9 yr
School	22	20	₦14.5m	₦14.5m	85%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	20	19	₦189m	₦188m	57%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	20	20	₦1m	₦1m	39%	2.6 yr
Clinic	12	11	₦4.48m	₦4.48m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	5	5	₦1.29m	₦1.29m	41%	2.6 yr
Industrial Site	1	1	₦318k	₦318k	73%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	64,226	720	₦2.78bn	₦2.59bn
Retail	105	0	₦2.05m	₦2.05m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	64,211	612	₦2.23bn	₦2.04bn	5%	17.9 yr
Enterprise	114	102	₦549m	₦544m	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	6	6	₦1.56m	₦1.56m	41%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	56,928	367	₦130m	₦130m
2.0	3,705	131	₦641m	₦456m
1.0	2,049	72	₦140m	₦140m
3.0	1,649	150	₦1.87bn	₦1.86bn