Yobe State

Rooftop solar in Machina, Yobe: what the roofs are worth

Machina has 70,253 buildings with a viable rooftop and 210 MWp of roof capacity. 2% run a generator, and together they spend ₦3.58bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

70,253

Usable roof area

955,758 m²

210 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦3.58bn/yr

3.03 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.4 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Machina

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦3.58bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦3.49bn

Lifetime cash saved₦182bn

NPV₦25.7bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.4 yr

Unlocked energy2.85 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity21.9 MWp

Capex₦24.5bn

Year-one energy value₦25.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.21tn

NPV₦209bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Machina's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 21.9 MWp
Capital cost: ₦24.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦25.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦209bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Machina pays back quickly

Of the 70,057 buildings in Machina with a modelled payback, 9.8% pay back inside five years and 2.8% inside three.

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How much of Machina's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Machina consume 6.83 GWh/yr but want 9.68 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Machina

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Machina actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 70,057 buildings with a modelled result out of 70,253 in Machina. 10,332 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,977 (3%)

Under 5 years6,854 (10%)

Under 7 years10,419 (15%)

Under 10 years15,713 (22%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%14,580 (21%)

Above 15%10,332 (15%)

Above 20%7,451 (11%)

Above 25%5,971 (8%)

CO₂ avoided

6.55 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.55 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

2.85 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

81.2k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Machina.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Machina

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	29,852	457	₦413m	₦403m	5%	17.9 yr
E	25,719	559	₦672m	₦609m	5%	18.1 yr
C	8,482	39	₦220m	₦220m	5%	17.1 yr
B	6,200	272	₦2.27bn	₦2.26bn	19%	5.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	69,167	1,113	₦2.45bn	₦2.36bn	5%	17.6 yr
Commercial Retail	466	0	₦24.5m	₦24.5m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	434	62	₦140m	₦140m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	146	117	₦962m	₦962m	57%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	32	28	₦3.24m	₦3.24m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship	7	7	₦901k	₦901k	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	1	0	₦56.8k	₦56.8k	39%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	58,654	714	₦176m	₦176m	5%	18.1 yr
30 50m2	7,789	234	₦175m	₦175m	9%	9.9 yr
50 100m2	3,116	201	₦425m	₦425m	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	574	127	₦860m	₦805m	33%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	117	49	₦1.28bn	₦1.24bn	33%	3.1 yr
Over 1000m2	3	2	₦667m	₦667m	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	56,660	657	₦1.13bn	₦1.06bn	5%	18.1 yr
Rural	7,584	506	₦235m	₦235m	7%	13.9 yr
Dense Urban	5,671	128	₦1.47bn	₦1.47bn	19%	5.6 yr
Urban	338	36	₦735m	₦722m	19%	5.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	59,218	730	₦146m	₦146m	5%	18.1 yr
Residential	4,974	153	₦1.79bn	₦1.7bn	17%	6.6 yr
Residential Small	3,702	230	₦487m	₦487m	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	1,273	0	₦26.9m	₦26.9m	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	461	25	₦18.3m	₦18.3m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	265	1	₦83.6m	₦83.6m	37%	2.9 yr
Market	94	0	₦4.98m	₦4.98m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	57	44	₦713m	₦713m	55%	1.9 yr
Hospital	39	33	₦59.7m	₦59.2m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	34	0	₦9.14m	₦9.14m	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	32	27	₦57.6m	₦57.6m	83%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	27	20	₦158m	₦158m	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	69,839	1,321	₦3.43bn	₦3.35bn
Retail	242	0	₦11.7m	₦11.7m
Farmland	159	0	₦2.53m	₦2.53m
Farmyard	8	1	₦52.8m	₦52.5m
Commercial	5	5	₦75.9m	₦75.9m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	69,807	1,209	₦2.52bn	₦2.44bn	5%	17.4 yr
SME High	300	1	₦92.9m	₦92.9m	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	146	117	₦962m	₦962m	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	59,241	749	₦147m	₦147m
2.0	5,300	251	₦693m	₦648m
1.0	3,915	136	₦166m	₦166m
3.0	1,655	191	₦2.49bn	₦2.45bn
4.0	136	0	₦66.1m	₦66.1m
5.0	6	0	₦13.9m	₦13.9m