Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Plateau State: buildings, spend and payback

2,128,118 buildings in Plateau State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦437bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 16% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

2,128,118

Usable roof area

91 km²

20.3 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦437bn/yr

368 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

8.9 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Plateau

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦437bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦432bn

Lifetime cash saved₦23.7tn

NPV₦3.57tn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.9 yr

Unlocked energy476 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity1.9 GWp

Capex₦1.96tn

Year-one energy value₦1.79tn

Lifetime energy value₦84.9tn

NPV₦14.4tn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Plateau State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 1.9 GWp
Capital cost: ₦1.96tn
Year 1 savings: ₦1.79tn/yr
NPV: ₦14.4tn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Plateau State pays back quickly

Of the 2,099,239 buildings in Plateau State with a modelled payback, 38.2% pay back inside five years and 15.8% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

38.2%

Payback under 3 years

15.8%

IRR above 20%

39.9%

Under 3 years · 16%3 – 5 years · 22%5 – 7 years · 8%7 – 10 years · 7%Over 10 years · 47%

Coverage: 99% of buildings in Plateau State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Plateau State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Plateau State consume 881 GWh/yr but want 1.36 TWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 65%Suppressed · 35%

Energy wanted

1.36 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

881 GWh/yr

Unmet demand

476 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Plateau State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 2,099,239 buildings with a modelled result out of 2,128,118 in Plateau State. 971,605 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years331,894 (16%)

Under 5 years801,533 (38%)

Under 7 years973,094 (46%)

Under 10 years1,116,796 (53%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%1,074,165 (50%)

Above 15%971,605 (46%)

Above 20%848,614 (40%)

Above 25%713,570 (34%)

Electricity billing bands in Plateau State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Plateau State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	617,531	77,356	₦90.1bn	₦88.8bn	7%	15.1 yr
D	484,440	53,224	₦59.5bn	₦58.1bn	5%	15.9 yr
E	424,359	47,754	₦53.7bn	₦52.9bn	7%	15.6 yr
A	370,472	99,939	₦153bn	₦152bn	29%	3.6 yr
B	231,316	62,667	₦80.6bn	₦79.6bn	25%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	2,058,805	301,371	₦256bn	₦252bn	9%	9.6 yr
Commercial General	26,105	13,911	₦86.1bn	₦85.9bn	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	21,403	11,239	₦3.12bn	₦3.12bn	39%	2.9 yr
Anchor	10,489	7,328	₦78.1bn	₦77.1bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	7,521	5,002	₦4.3bn	₦4.3bn	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	2,364	1,275	₦5.36bn	₦5.35bn	45%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	666	323	₦3.61bn	₦3.42bn	39%	2.6 yr
Productive Use	390	335	₦188m	₦188m	69%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	307	135	₦292m	₦292m	39%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	61	18	₦123m	₦122m	39%	2.9 yr
Automotive	7	3	₦6.45m	₦6.45m	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	1,110,172	110,143	₦10.8bn	₦10.7bn	5%	17.6 yr
50 100m2	359,011	71,831	₦41.7bn	₦41.3bn	27%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	340,443	57,238	₦12.4bn	₦12.3bn	11%	8.6 yr
100 250m2	259,778	76,457	₦128bn	₦126bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	56,963	24,187	₦165bn	₦164bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	1,751	1,084	₦79.3bn	₦78.1bn	51%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	751,187	53,635	₦94.8bn	₦92.2bn	5%	17.9 yr
Urban	547,880	102,870	₦141bn	₦139bn	15%	6.9 yr
Urban Centre	411,054	99,257	₦135bn	₦134bn	27%	3.9 yr
Rural	227,183	44,205	₦30.9bn	₦30.5bn	9%	13.1 yr
Dense Urban	190,814	40,973	₦35.9bn	₦35.8bn	19%	5.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	1,160,433	101,461	₦9.31bn	₦9.31bn	5%	17.1 yr
Residential Small	373,112	83,382	₦44.4bn	₦43.6bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	221,306	41,274	₦15.2bn	₦15.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	193,341	62,891	₦183bn	₦180bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Formal	101,405	10,829	₦3.21bn	₦3.18bn	19%	5.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	21,693	11,526	₦3.22bn	₦3.22bn	39%	2.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	11,021	5,131	₦37.8bn	₦37.7bn	39%	2.6 yr
Institutional	9,046	6,231	₦60.1bn	₦59.6bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial	6,453	3,462	₦28.6bn	₦28.5bn	41%	2.6 yr
Apartment	6,382	1,109	₦323m	₦315m	29%	3.6 yr
Educational Facility	3,395	2,482	₦6.97bn	₦6.97bn	85%	1.1 yr
Place Of Worship	2,878	1,785	₦813m	₦813m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	2,127,019	340,465	₦431bn	₦426bn
Industrial	654	356	₦5.41bn	₦5.38bn
Retail	259	35	₦28.2m	₦28.2m
Farmland	93	13	₦6.36m	₦6.36m
Commercial	79	62	₦338m	₦333m
Farmyard	14	9	₦20.6m	₦20.6m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	2,097,481	323,676	₦286bn	₦282bn	9%	9.1 yr
SME High	18,284	8,921	₦68.6bn	₦68.5bn	39%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	12,353	8,343	₦82.4bn	₦81.4bn	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	1,154,260	101,750	₦9.3bn	₦9.3bn
3.0	308,526	98,523	₦246bn	₦242bn
2.0	293,651	69,205	₦50.8bn	₦50.3bn
4.0	191,456	34,165	₦61.7bn	₦61.4bn
1.0	171,840	33,351	₦13.9bn	₦13.7bn
5.0	6,574	2,987	₦26.1bn	₦26.1bn
6.0	1,811	959	₦29.3bn	₦29.1bn