Plateau State

Rooftop solar in Jos South, Plateau: what the roofs are worth

Jos South has 233,292 buildings with a viable rooftop and 4.29 GWp of roof capacity. 30% run a generator, and together they spend ₦127bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

233,292

Usable roof area

19.1 km²

4.29 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦127bn/yr

96.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.6 yr

Median IRR 31% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Jos South

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦127bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦126bn

Lifetime cash saved₦7.08tn

NPV₦1.04tn

Median IRR31%

Median payback3.6 yr

Unlocked energy147 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity448 MWp

Capex₦440bn

Year-one energy value₦322bn

Lifetime energy value₦15.2tn

NPV₦2.48tn

Median IRR73%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Jos South's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 448 MWp
Capital cost: ₦440bn
Year 1 savings: ₦322bn/yr
NPV: ₦2.48tn
Median IRR: 73%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Jos South pays back quickly

Of the 230,764 buildings in Jos South with a modelled payback, 72.3% pay back inside five years and 30.3% inside three.

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How much of Jos South's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Jos South consume 301 GWh/yr but want 448 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Jos South

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Jos South actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 230,764 buildings with a modelled result out of 233,292 in Jos South. 198,054 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years69,811 (30%)

Under 5 years166,852 (72%)

Under 7 years198,363 (86%)

Under 10 years214,210 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%211,747 (91%)

Above 15%198,054 (85%)

Above 20%175,756 (75%)

Above 25%150,350 (64%)

CO₂ avoided

262 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

45.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

147 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

549k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Jos South.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Jos South

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	157,563	46,893	₦81.7bn	₦81.2bn	31%	3.6 yr
B	55,981	18,959	₦35.2bn	₦34.8bn	31%	3.6 yr
C	13,487	3,176	₦6.59bn	₦6.36bn	21%	4.9 yr
E	3,158	719	₦1.91bn	₦1.84bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	3,103	735	₦1.49bn	₦1.48bn	19%	5.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	211,520	60,962	₦62.6bn	₦61.8bn	29%	3.6 yr
Commercial General	9,852	4,385	₦39bn	₦38.9bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	8,658	3,603	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	1,342	665	₦20.2bn	₦19.9bn	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	1,042	494	₦674m	₦674m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	579	241	₦1.73bn	₦1.72bn	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	197	92	₦1.28bn	₦1.25bn	39%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	58	22	₦53m	₦53m	39%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	23	8	₦22.9m	₦22.9m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	20	9	₦60m	₦59.7m	39%	2.6 yr
Automotive	1	1	₦557k	₦557k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	67,316	19,079	₦2.07bn	₦1.95bn	19%	5.6 yr
100 250m2	61,687	19,835	₦34.9bn	₦34.4bn	31%	3.4 yr
50 100m2	50,307	13,955	₦7.14bn	₦7.03bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	35,267	9,788	₦1.99bn	₦1.97bn	23%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	18,287	7,569	₦53.6bn	₦53.5bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	428	256	₦27.2bn	₦26.8bn	45%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	158,191	44,113	₦71.9bn	₦71.7bn	31%	3.6 yr
Urban	46,534	18,909	₦36.3bn	₦36bn	31%	3.4 yr
Unclassified	15,585	5,067	₦17.2bn	₦16.6bn	31%	3.6 yr
Dense Urban	12,073	2,147	₦1.17bn	₦1.15bn	21%	4.9 yr
Rural	909	246	₦271m	₦271m	29%	3.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	60,409	12,426	₦5.7bn	₦5.63bn	27%	3.9 yr
Shed	46,332	13,822	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Small	44,993	16,288	₦6.5bn	₦6.34bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	29,144	13,953	₦47.4bn	₦46.9bn	33%	3.4 yr
Residential Formal	26,481	3,747	₦1.49bn	₦1.46bn	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	8,667	3,607	₦1.32bn	₦1.32bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	4,694	2,113	₦18.6bn	₦18.6bn	39%	2.6 yr
Commercial	3,685	1,639	₦15.6bn	₦15.6bn	39%	2.6 yr
Apartment	3,026	537	₦204m	₦196m	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	1,237	615	₦18.4bn	₦18.4bn	35%	3.1 yr
Duplex	1,050	158	₦65.6m	₦65.6m	31%	3.6 yr
Unknown	563	208	₦2.17bn	₦2.16bn	33%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	232,850	70,261	₦122bn	₦121bn
Industrial	392	191	₦4.55bn	₦4.52bn
Commercial	46	29	₦332m	₦327m
Farmland	2	1	₦105k	₦105k
Retail	2	0	₦135k	₦135k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	222,913	65,785	₦70bn	₦69.3bn	31%	3.6 yr
SME High	8,561	3,824	₦35bn	₦35bn	39%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	1,818	873	₦21.7bn	₦21.4bn	47%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	73,726	26,856	₦60.8bn	₦60bn
4.0	58,151	12,395	₦30.6bn	₦30.4bn
0.0	45,803	13,808	₦1.25bn	₦1.25bn
2.0	40,174	11,881	₦4.26bn	₦4.23bn
1.0	10,874	3,350	₦696m	₦690m
5.0	3,577	1,642	₦12.7bn	₦12.7bn
6.0	987	550	₦16.5bn	₦16.4bn