Plateau State

Rooftop solar in Bokkos, Plateau: what the roofs are worth

Bokkos has 117,472 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.16 GWp of roof capacity. 25% run a generator, and together they spend ₦30.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

117,472

Usable roof area

5.23 km²

1.16 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦30.4bn/yr

28 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.6 yr

Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bokkos

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦30.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦30bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.56tn

NPV₦252bn

Median IRR19%

Median payback5.6 yr

Unlocked energy24.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity112 MWp

Capex₦120bn

Year-one energy value₦128bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.11tn

NPV₦1.05tn

Median IRR109%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Bokkos's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 112 MWp
Capital cost: ₦120bn
Year 1 savings: ₦128bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.05tn
Median IRR: 109%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bokkos pays back quickly

Of the 116,544 buildings in Bokkos with a modelled payback, 47.8% pay back inside five years and 24.5% inside three.

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How much of Bokkos's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bokkos consume 42.2 GWh/yr but want 67.1 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Bokkos

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bokkos actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 116,544 buildings with a modelled result out of 117,472 in Bokkos. 61,802 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years28,514 (24%)

Under 5 years55,686 (48%)

Under 7 years61,829 (53%)

Under 10 years68,665 (59%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%65,587 (56%)

Above 15%61,802 (53%)

Above 20%57,641 (49%)

Above 25%50,988 (43%)

CO₂ avoided

55 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

16.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

24.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

367k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bokkos.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Bokkos

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	40,931	9,568	₦8.76bn	₦8.69bn	15%	7.1 yr
C	38,757	9,188	₦11.2bn	₦10.9bn	15%	6.6 yr
E	29,052	7,581	₦8.23bn	₦8.22bn	13%	6.4 yr
B	8,732	2,631	₦2.24bn	₦2.24bn	29%	3.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	116,127	27,790	₦24bn	₦23.8bn	19%	5.6 yr
Anchor	675	583	₦4.33bn	₦4.22bn	81%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	440	396	₦1.75bn	₦1.75bn	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	101	82	₦170m	₦170m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	39	32	₦61m	₦60.9m	75%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	36	34	₦19.3m	₦19.3m	71%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	35	35	₦16m	₦16m	69%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	15	13	₦20.9m	₦20.9m	69%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	4	3	₦2.78m	₦2.78m	43%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	49,853	9,143	₦735m	₦734m	5%	16.4 yr
50 100m2	24,940	6,983	₦4.08bn	₦4.07bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	24,068	5,010	₦895m	₦895m	9%	9.6 yr
100 250m2	16,186	6,529	₦11.6bn	₦11.4bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	2,332	1,236	₦9.53bn	₦9.47bn	51%	2.1 yr
Over 1000m2	93	67	₦3.56bn	₦3.45bn	69%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	50,672	14,691	₦15.9bn	₦15.8bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	36,897	5,639	₦8.32bn	₦8.2bn	7%	14.4 yr
Rural	20,456	5,396	₦4.01bn	₦3.84bn	17%	6.1 yr
Dense Urban	9,447	3,242	₦2.14bn	₦2.14bn	29%	3.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	65,508	11,683	₦954m	₦954m	7%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	29,904	8,743	₦4.74bn	₦4.73bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	14,569	6,235	₦18bn	₦17.7bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	4,817	478	₦193m	₦193m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	1,084	535	₦128m	₦128m	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	428	374	₦3.46bn	₦3.35bn	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	232	208	₦687m	₦687m	91%	1.1 yr
Apartment	187	91	₦20.5m	₦20.5m	31%	3.6 yr
School	181	157	₦265m	₦265m	91%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	119	101	₦918m	₦917m	59%	1.9 yr
Clinic	83	69	₦240m	₦240m	57%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	67	65	₦32.6m	₦32.6m	69%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	117,472	28,968	₦30.4bn	₦30bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	116,696	28,293	₦25.4bn	₦25.1bn	19%	5.6 yr
Enterprise	707	608	₦4.39bn	₦4.27bn	79%	1.4 yr
SME High	69	67	₦600m	₦600m	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	65,360	11,641	₦951m	₦951m
3.0	21,021	8,752	₦22.7bn	₦22.3bn
2.0	20,131	5,983	₦4.96bn	₦4.94bn
1.0	8,005	1,804	₦864m	₦863m
4.0	2,953	787	₦733m	₦733m
5.0	1	1	₦226m	₦226m
6.0	1	0	₦1.19m	₦1.19m