Plateau State

Rooftop solar in Mangu, Plateau: what the roofs are worth

Mangu has 188,456 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.91 GWp of roof capacity. 16% run a generator, and together they spend ₦28.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

188,456

Usable roof area

8.6 km²

1.91 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦28.1bn/yr

26.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.9 yr

Median IRR 17% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Mangu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦28.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦27.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.48tn

NPV₦231bn

Median IRR17%

Median payback5.9 yr

Unlocked energy28.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity141 MWp

Capex₦151bn

Year-one energy value₦158bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.55tn

NPV₦1.3tn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Mangu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 141 MWp
Capital cost: ₦151bn
Year 1 savings: ₦158bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.3tn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Mangu pays back quickly

Of the 186,558 buildings in Mangu with a modelled payback, 43.9% pay back inside five years and 14.9% inside three.

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How much of Mangu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Mangu consume 49.2 GWh/yr but want 78 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Mangu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Mangu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 186,558 buildings with a modelled result out of 188,456 in Mangu. 101,091 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years27,708 (15%)

Under 5 years81,872 (44%)

Under 7 years101,303 (54%)

Under 10 years117,480 (63%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%111,895 (59%)

Above 15%101,091 (54%)

Above 20%87,537 (46%)

Above 25%70,777 (38%)

CO₂ avoided

53.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

12.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

28.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

488k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Mangu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Mangu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	60,323	9,349	₦10.5bn	₦10.3bn	15%	6.6 yr
D	46,454	5,874	₦6.18bn	₦6.15bn	9%	9.9 yr
E	42,033	6,205	₦6.43bn	₦6.32bn	9%	9.4 yr
B	39,404	7,861	₦3.76bn	₦3.76bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	242	52	₦1.25bn	₦1.25bn	31%	3.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	184,843	26,675	₦17.8bn	₦17.6bn	17%	6.1 yr
Commercial General	1,100	760	₦2.11bn	₦2.11bn	61%	1.6 yr
Anchor	872	684	₦7.15bn	₦7.09bn	65%	1.6 yr
Worship	720	610	₦535m	₦535m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	664	433	₦114m	₦114m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	164	104	₦326m	₦325m	67%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	39	39	₦23.9m	₦23.9m	71%	1.4 yr
Filling Station	30	17	₦23.1m	₦23.1m	49%	2.1 yr
Hospitality	23	18	₦25.3m	₦25.3m	73%	1.4 yr
Automotive	1	1	₦356k	₦356k	55%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	74,873	7,980	₦698m	₦695m	5%	16.4 yr
50 100m2	45,685	7,583	₦3.65bn	₦3.61bn	27%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	38,095	5,198	₦967m	₦967m	11%	8.9 yr
100 250m2	25,911	6,872	₦8.44bn	₦8.26bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	3,764	1,615	₦7.96bn	₦7.91bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	128	93	₦6.39bn	₦6.36bn	71%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	83,547	12,483	₦15.6bn	₦15.5bn	17%	5.9 yr
Unclassified	48,476	3,941	₦6.23bn	₦6.06bn	7%	15.4 yr
Urban Centre	23,002	5,544	₦2.01bn	₦2.01bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	19,417	3,806	₦2.87bn	₦2.87bn	23%	4.9 yr
Rural	14,014	3,567	₦1.4bn	₦1.4bn	17%	6.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	93,079	8,871	₦809m	₦809m	7%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	47,733	8,624	₦4.01bn	₦3.95bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	20,084	3,235	₦943m	₦943m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	17,153	5,032	₦11.9bn	₦11.7bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Formal	6,383	798	₦170m	₦170m	19%	5.4 yr
Institutional	830	647	₦5.66bn	₦5.66bn	59%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	696	465	₦135m	₦135m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	311	246	₦453m	₦453m	91%	1.1 yr
Commercial	261	175	₦217m	₦217m	63%	1.6 yr
Apartment	257	71	₦13.2m	₦13.2m	29%	3.6 yr
Worship Center	249	206	₦117m	₦117m	69%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	242	209	₦62.2m	₦62.2m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	188,456	29,341	₦28.1bn	₦27.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	186,917	28,223	₦19.5bn	₦19.2bn	17%	5.9 yr
Enterprise	1,006	768	₦7.42bn	₦7.36bn	67%	1.6 yr
SME High	533	350	₦1.2bn	₦1.2bn	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	92,043	8,888	₦803m	₦803m
3.0	37,441	9,196	₦20.2bn	₦20bn
2.0	32,314	6,343	₦3.7bn	₦3.67bn
4.0	13,971	2,581	₦1.85bn	₦1.85bn
1.0	12,569	2,275	₦969m	₦944m
5.0	93	42	₦407m	₦407m
6.0	25	16	₦179m	₦179m