Plateau State

Rooftop solar in Pankshin, Plateau: what the roofs are worth

Pankshin has 101,867 buildings with a viable rooftop and 947 MWp of roof capacity. 15% run a generator, and together they spend ₦22.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

101,867

Usable roof area

4.26 km²

947 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦22.2bn/yr

20.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.1 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Pankshin

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦22.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦20.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.1tn

NPV₦175bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback9.1 yr

Unlocked energy19.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity94.2 MWp

Capex₦101bn

Year-one energy value₦108bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.15tn

NPV₦889bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Pankshin's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 94.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦101bn
Year 1 savings: ₦108bn/yr
NPV: ₦889bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Pankshin pays back quickly

Of the 100,359 buildings in Pankshin with a modelled payback, 39.5% pay back inside five years and 14.6% inside three.

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How much of Pankshin's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Pankshin consume 34 GWh/yr but want 53.1 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Pankshin

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Pankshin actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 100,359 buildings with a modelled result out of 101,867 in Pankshin. 46,120 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,625 (15%)

Under 5 years39,655 (40%)

Under 7 years46,181 (46%)

Under 10 years54,767 (55%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%51,378 (50%)

Above 15%46,120 (45%)

Above 20%41,491 (41%)

Above 25%36,160 (35%)

CO₂ avoided

39 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

10.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

19.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

331k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Pankshin.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Pankshin

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	36,450	5,212	₦7.61bn	₦7.41bn	9%	9.4 yr
E	28,575	3,925	₦6.67bn	₦6.58bn	9%	12.9 yr
D	24,496	3,707	₦6.54bn	₦5.58bn	9%	13.4 yr
B	12,346	2,627	₦1.34bn	₦1.34bn	19%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	100,205	14,108	₦16bn	₦14.9bn	9%	9.4 yr
Anchor	692	544	₦4.18bn	₦4.08bn	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	534	433	₦1.37bn	₦1.37bn	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	190	164	₦212m	₦212m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	151	146	₦59.5m	₦59.5m	75%	1.4 yr
Industrial	79	62	₦209m	₦209m	73%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	8	7	₦101m	₦101m	43%	2.4 yr
Filling Station	7	6	₦15.1m	₦15.1m	45%	2.4 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦396k	₦396k	49%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	44,969	4,702	₦480m	₦480m	5%	16.4 yr
30 50m2	22,908	2,781	₦670m	₦670m	9%	9.6 yr
50 100m2	20,749	3,533	₦2.68bn	₦2.67bn	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	11,043	3,355	₦6.99bn	₦6.95bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	2,127	1,044	₦8.28bn	₦7.17bn	33%	3.1 yr
Over 1000m2	71	56	₦3.07bn	₦2.96bn	75%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	46,184	7,752	₦10.7bn	₦9.69bn	9%	9.4 yr
Unclassified	26,405	1,923	₦4.56bn	₦4.46bn	7%	15.4 yr
Urban Centre	19,994	4,209	₦5.32bn	₦5.22bn	21%	4.9 yr
Rural	9,284	1,587	₦1.55bn	₦1.54bn	9%	12.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	57,143	5,173	₦496m	₦496m	7%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	22,201	3,640	₦2.87bn	₦2.86bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	9,181	1,560	₦992m	₦992m	21%	4.6 yr
Residential	8,956	3,044	₦11.5bn	₦10.3bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	2,416	593	₦151m	₦151m	23%	4.6 yr
Institutional	483	382	₦1.83bn	₦1.83bn	61%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	232	185	₦485m	₦485m	91%	1.1 yr
Apartment	204	67	₦16.6m	₦16.6m	29%	3.9 yr
School	186	145	₦199m	₦199m	89%	1.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	152	147	₦59.9m	₦59.9m	75%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	100	84	₦891m	₦887m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	89	88	₦444m	₦444m	77%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	101,867	15,471	₦22.2bn	₦20.9bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	100,976	14,747	₦17.3bn	₦16.1bn	9%	9.1 yr
Enterprise	766	602	₦4.38bn	₦4.28bn	67%	1.6 yr
SME High	125	122	₦521m	₦521m	77%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	57,176	5,191	₦497m	₦497m
2.0	17,191	3,402	₦3.68bn	₦3.68bn
3.0	14,599	4,203	₦13.9bn	₦12.7bn
1.0	7,675	1,416	₦778m	₦778m
4.0	5,222	1,255	₦3.23bn	₦3.23bn
5.0	4	4	₦73.2m	₦73.2m