Plateau State

Rooftop solar in Shendam, Plateau: what the roofs are worth

Shendam has 224,897 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.19 GWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦21bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

224,897

Usable roof area

5.33 km²

1.19 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦21bn/yr

20.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.6 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Shendam

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦21bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦20.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.1tn

NPV₦165bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.6 yr

Unlocked energy17.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity108 MWp

Capex₦116bn

Year-one energy value₦111bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.25tn

NPV₦895bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Shendam's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 108 MWp
Capital cost: ₦116bn
Year 1 savings: ₦111bn/yr
NPV: ₦895bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Shendam pays back quickly

Of the 220,995 buildings in Shendam with a modelled payback, 17.6% pay back inside five years and 7.9% inside three.

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How much of Shendam's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Shendam consume 34.8 GWh/yr but want 52.7 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Shendam

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Shendam actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 220,995 buildings with a modelled result out of 224,897 in Shendam. 51,929 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years17,534 (8%)

Under 5 years38,850 (18%)

Under 7 years51,977 (24%)

Under 10 years63,525 (29%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%60,495 (27%)

Above 15%51,929 (23%)

Above 20%41,745 (19%)

Above 25%34,203 (15%)

CO₂ avoided

38.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

9.97 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

322k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Shendam.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Shendam

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	81,043	5,992	₦7.51bn	₦7.37bn	5%	17.9 yr
D	66,100	4,185	₦5.7bn	₦5.66bn	5%	18.1 yr
E	55,554	3,224	₦4.16bn	₦4.16bn	3%	18.6 yr
B	22,200	4,556	₦3.65bn	₦3.65bn	17%	5.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	220,679	15,087	₦13.2bn	₦13bn	5%	17.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,482	1,091	₦157m	₦157m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	1,284	817	₦3.82bn	₦3.78bn	43%	2.6 yr
Worship	681	432	₦336m	₦336m	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	564	429	₦3.2bn	₦3.2bn	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	197	96	₦314m	₦314m	39%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	9	5	₦4.85m	₦4.85m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	1	0	₦335k	₦335k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	160,341	7,210	₦778m	₦778m	3%	19.1 yr
30 50m2	27,784	2,951	₦649m	₦649m	9%	12.9 yr
50 100m2	23,621	3,440	₦2.24bn	₦2.24bn	25%	4.4 yr
100 250m2	10,733	3,124	₦5.39bn	₦5.27bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	2,324	1,176	₦9.61bn	₦9.53bn	37%	2.9 yr
Over 1000m2	94	56	₦2.37bn	₦2.37bn	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	141,859	5,478	₦7.46bn	₦7.33bn	3%	19.1 yr
Rural	30,319	3,398	₦5.23bn	₦5.17bn	7%	14.9 yr
Dense Urban	26,449	4,618	₦3.64bn	₦3.64bn	17%	6.1 yr
Urban	26,270	4,463	₦4.7bn	₦4.7bn	9%	9.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	166,787	7,123	₦771m	₦771m	3%	18.9 yr
Residential Small	24,025	3,814	₦2.25bn	₦2.25bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	14,012	3,146	₦9.8bn	₦9.65bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	9,219	1,002	₦334m	₦333m	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Formal	6,551	0	₦35.3m	₦35.3m	11%	8.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,482	1,091	₦157m	₦157m	55%	1.9 yr
Institutional	732	474	₦2.88bn	₦2.88bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	716	453	₦1.62bn	₦1.62bn	41%	2.6 yr
Worship Center	244	152	₦67.8m	₦67.8m	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	211	153	₦408m	₦408m	81%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	202	128	₦31.4m	₦31.4m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial Site	186	87	₦312m	₦312m	37%	2.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	224,897	17,957	₦21bn	₦20.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	223,380	16,955	₦14.7bn	₦14.5bn	5%	17.9 yr
Enterprise	759	523	₦3.52bn	₦3.52bn	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	758	479	₦2.84bn	₦2.8bn	41%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	166,597	7,198	₦773m	₦773m
2.0	18,211	3,173	₦3.09bn	₦3.07bn
1.0	15,212	2,448	₦937m	₦937m
3.0	15,111	4,471	₦13.1bn	₦13bn
4.0	9,662	631	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn
5.0	100	36	₦1.87bn	₦1.83bn
6.0	4	0	₦11.6m	₦11.6m