Plateau State

Rooftop solar in Qua'An Pan, Plateau: what the roofs are worth

Qua'An Pan has 167,752 buildings with a viable rooftop and 891 MWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦11.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

167,752

Usable roof area

4 km²

891 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦11.5bn/yr

10.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.9 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Qua'An Pan

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦11.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦11.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦611bn

NPV₦90.1bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.9 yr

Unlocked energy12.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity85.1 MWp

Capex₦93.1bn

Year-one energy value₦93.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.47tn

NPV₦765bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Qua'An Pan's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 85.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦93.1bn
Year 1 savings: ₦93.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦765bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Qua'An Pan pays back quickly

Of the 165,176 buildings in Qua'An Pan with a modelled payback, 16.6% pay back inside five years and 6.0% inside three.

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How much of Qua'An Pan's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Qua'An Pan consume 19 GWh/yr but want 31.7 GWh/yr. The 40% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Qua'An Pan

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Qua'An Pan actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 165,176 buildings with a modelled result out of 167,752 in Qua'An Pan. 35,780 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,950 (6%)

Under 5 years27,382 (17%)

Under 7 years35,813 (22%)

Under 10 years44,831 (27%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%42,539 (25%)

Above 15%35,780 (21%)

Above 20%29,346 (17%)

Above 25%24,268 (14%)

CO₂ avoided

22.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

12.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

328k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Qua'An Pan.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Qua'An Pan

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	62,802	3,433	₦4.33bn	₦4.31bn	5%	17.9 yr
D	55,250	3,573	₦4.03bn	₦4.03bn	5%	17.9 yr
E	49,700	2,888	₦3.14bn	₦3.12bn	5%	17.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	165,891	8,481	₦8.39bn	₦8.36bn	5%	17.9 yr
Anchor	699	569	₦1.94bn	₦1.94bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	472	365	₦841m	₦841m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	435	297	₦155m	₦155m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	104	61	₦8.84m	₦8.84m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	60	40	₦100m	₦99.9m	67%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	52	50	₦16.1m	₦16.1m	65%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	22	22	₦27.9m	₦27.9m	67%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	17	9	₦11.3m	₦11.3m	63%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	114,944	3,647	₦453m	₦453m	3%	19.4 yr
30 50m2	22,700	1,749	₦480m	₦480m	9%	13.4 yr
50 100m2	20,429	2,258	₦1.76bn	₦1.74bn	25%	4.6 yr
100 250m2	8,244	1,663	₦3.79bn	₦3.78bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,382	546	₦4.11bn	₦4.1bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	53	31	₦902m	₦902m	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	116,377	3,461	₦5.78bn	₦5.77bn	3%	19.1 yr
Urban	25,740	3,514	₦3.79bn	₦3.79bn	9%	13.1 yr
Dense Urban	15,884	558	₦509m	₦509m	15%	7.4 yr
Rural	9,751	2,361	₦1.42bn	₦1.4bn	11%	9.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	123,212	3,565	₦432m	₦432m	3%	19.1 yr
Residential Small	25,225	2,916	₦1.94bn	₦1.92bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	8,487	1,933	₦5.92bn	₦5.9bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	6,197	0	₦56.7m	₦56.7m	17%	6.6 yr
Residential Informal	2,765	67	₦43.8m	₦43.8m	15%	7.1 yr
Institutional	563	428	₦1.33bn	₦1.33bn	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	256	208	₦344m	₦344m	85%	1.1 yr
School	169	133	₦200m	₦200m	83%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	156	108	₦35.9m	₦35.9m	61%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	148	103	₦20.6m	₦20.6m	63%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	137	96	₦28.8m	₦28.8m	61%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	130	103	₦609m	₦605m	53%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	167,752	9,894	₦11.5bn	₦11.5bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	166,935	9,248	₦9.37bn	₦9.34bn	5%	17.9 yr
Enterprise	746	596	₦2.03bn	₦2.03bn	67%	1.6 yr
SME High	71	50	₦95.8m	₦95.8m	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	123,290	3,622	₦437m	₦437m
1.0	18,350	2,392	₦1.35bn	₦1.35bn
2.0	17,188	2,879	₦4.08bn	₦4.04bn
3.0	5,264	979	₦5.42bn	₦5.42bn
4.0	3,659	21	₦192m	₦192m
5.0	1	1	₦16.5m	₦16.5m