Plateau State

Rooftop solar in Wase, Plateau: what the roofs are worth

Wase has 140,410 buildings with a viable rooftop and 624 MWp of roof capacity. 9% run a generator, and together they spend ₦11.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

140,410

Usable roof area

2.82 km²

624 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦11.9bn/yr

12.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.9 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Wase

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦11.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦11.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦614bn

NPV₦92.3bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.9 yr

Unlocked energy11.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity56.3 MWp

Capex₦60.9bn

Year-one energy value₦56.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.68tn

NPV₦455bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Wase's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 56.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦60.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦56.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦455bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Wase pays back quickly

Of the 137,650 buildings in Wase with a modelled payback, 15.8% pay back inside five years and 9.4% inside three.

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How much of Wase's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Wase consume 20.4 GWh/yr but want 32 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Wase

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Wase actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 137,650 buildings with a modelled result out of 140,410 in Wase. 28,084 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,005 (9%)

Under 5 years21,778 (16%)

Under 7 years28,119 (20%)

Under 10 years35,451 (26%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%33,178 (24%)

Above 15%28,084 (20%)

Above 20%23,231 (17%)

Above 25%19,837 (14%)

CO₂ avoided

21.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.26 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

11.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

127k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Wase.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Wase

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	56,144	5,040	₦4.43bn	₦4.37bn	5%	18.1 yr
D	36,479	2,606	₦3.53bn	₦3.48bn	3%	18.9 yr
E	33,632	1,550	₦2.2bn	₦2.1bn	5%	18.1 yr
B	14,155	3,690	₦1.79bn	₦1.71bn	19%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	138,526	11,472	₦5.4bn	₦5.26bn	5%	17.9 yr
Commercial General	567	391	₦549m	₦549m	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	462	440	₦38.3m	₦38.3m	41%	2.6 yr
Anchor	443	343	₦5.79bn	₦5.63bn	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	220	86	₦132m	₦132m	37%	2.9 yr
Worship	163	126	₦26.9m	₦26.9m	59%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	21	21	₦5.33m	₦5.33m	69%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	7	6	₦7.29m	₦7.29m	71%	1.4 yr
Filling Station	1	1	₦681k	₦681k	61%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	107,452	6,032	₦555m	₦555m	3%	18.9 yr
30 50m2	16,060	2,850	₦507m	₦502m	11%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	10,967	2,125	₦1.06bn	₦1.02bn	25%	4.4 yr
100 250m2	4,803	1,341	₦2.23bn	₦2.2bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,011	448	₦2.29bn	₦2.22bn	29%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	117	90	₦5.3bn	₦5.15bn	69%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	107,119	7,097	₦8.68bn	₦8.47bn	3%	18.9 yr
Rural	18,211	3,369	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn	9%	9.4 yr
Dense Urban	7,581	1,242	₦811m	₦736m	15%	6.4 yr
Urban	7,499	1,178	₦1.34bn	₦1.33bn	9%	9.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	109,802	6,314	₦537m	₦537m	3%	18.9 yr
Residential Small	13,659	3,440	₦1.28bn	₦1.24bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	9,963	1,706	₦3.55bn	₦3.45bn	15%	6.4 yr
Residential Formal	2,899	0	₦12.8m	₦12.8m	7%	12.9 yr
Residential Informal	2,062	0	₦16.4m	₦16.4m	11%	8.6 yr
Institutional	495	315	₦5.19bn	₦5.12bn	55%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	481	459	₦43.2m	₦43.2m	41%	2.6 yr
Industrial Site	216	82	₦127m	₦127m	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	155	113	₦202m	₦202m	83%	1.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	149	147	₦127m	₦127m	43%	2.4 yr
Agricultural	122	12	₦1.22m	₦1.22m	3%	18.9 yr
School	94	69	₦86.4m	₦86.4m	81%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	140,410	12,886	₦11.9bn	₦11.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	139,596	12,309	₦5.9bn	₦5.76bn	5%	17.9 yr
Enterprise	657	423	₦5.92bn	₦5.76bn	57%	1.9 yr
SME High	157	154	₦136m	₦136m	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	109,984	6,360	₦541m	₦541m
2.0	11,540	2,587	₦2.1bn	₦2.1bn
1.0	10,497	1,943	₦647m	₦604m
3.0	5,960	1,964	₦8.54bn	₦8.29bn
4.0	2,428	32	₦115m	₦115m
5.0	1	0	₦217k	₦217k