Plateau State

Rooftop solar in Barkin Ladi, Plateau: what the roofs are worth

Barkin Ladi has 96,881 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.01 GWp of roof capacity. 16% run a generator, and together they spend ₦30.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

96,881

Usable roof area

4.55 km²

1.01 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦30.1bn/yr

27.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.9 yr

Median IRR 17% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Barkin Ladi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦30.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦29.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.58tn

NPV₦250bn

Median IRR17%

Median payback5.9 yr

Unlocked energy27.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity119 MWp

Capex₦125bn

Year-one energy value₦132bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.26tn

NPV₦1.08tn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Barkin Ladi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 119 MWp
Capital cost: ₦125bn
Year 1 savings: ₦132bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.08tn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Barkin Ladi pays back quickly

Of the 95,752 buildings in Barkin Ladi with a modelled payback, 45.3% pay back inside five years and 16.5% inside three.

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How much of Barkin Ladi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Barkin Ladi consume 49.3 GWh/yr but want 76.9 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Barkin Ladi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Barkin Ladi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 95,752 buildings with a modelled result out of 96,881 in Barkin Ladi. 50,477 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years15,813 (17%)

Under 5 years43,403 (45%)

Under 7 years50,548 (53%)

Under 10 years57,797 (60%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%55,133 (57%)

Above 15%50,477 (52%)

Above 20%45,471 (47%)

Above 25%38,974 (40%)

CO₂ avoided

55.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

14.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

27.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

396k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Barkin Ladi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Barkin Ladi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	34,974	5,978	₦11bn	₦11bn	11%	8.1 yr
D	22,499	2,160	₦3.97bn	₦3.83bn	9%	13.1 yr
E	20,481	2,601	₦3.79bn	₦3.78bn	9%	13.4 yr
B	18,823	4,946	₦11.3bn	₦11.1bn	29%	3.6 yr
A	104	20	₦15.2m	₦15.2m	21%	3.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	93,694	13,266	₦20.4bn	₦20bn	15%	6.6 yr
Commercial General	1,018	742	₦3.45bn	₦3.45bn	51%	2.1 yr
Anchor	657	529	₦4.57bn	₦4.57bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	621	458	₦107m	₦107m	47%	2.1 yr
Worship	588	493	₦537m	₦537m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	232	150	₦928m	₦927m	57%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	45	45	₦24.7m	₦24.7m	71%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	16	14	₦77.7m	₦77.7m	73%	1.4 yr
Filling Station	10	8	₦17.1m	₦17.1m	57%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	39,521	4,354	₦478m	₦478m	5%	16.4 yr
50 100m2	21,160	3,714	₦2.98bn	₦2.97bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	20,480	2,601	₦707m	₦698m	11%	9.4 yr
100 250m2	13,287	3,810	₦9.9bn	₦9.54bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,348	1,169	₦11.8bn	₦11.8bn	39%	2.6 yr
Over 1000m2	85	57	₦4.23bn	₦4.23bn	69%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	53,841	6,766	₦12.5bn	₦12.5bn	13%	7.1 yr
Unclassified	17,878	1,789	₦4.8bn	₦4.45bn	7%	15.4 yr
Urban Centre	9,172	2,494	₦5.04bn	₦5.04bn	31%	3.6 yr
Dense Urban	9,149	3,514	₦6.48bn	₦6.48bn	31%	3.6 yr
Rural	6,841	1,142	₦1.21bn	₦1.2bn	9%	9.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	48,612	4,159	₦410m	₦410m	7%	15.6 yr
Residential Small	28,840	5,438	₦3.81bn	₦3.57bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential	11,667	3,362	₦15.9bn	₦15.8bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Formal	3,752	21	₦105m	₦105m	21%	4.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	663	500	₦129m	₦129m	49%	2.1 yr
Residential Informal	648	275	₦138m	₦138m	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	643	508	₦4.11bn	₦4.11bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	448	320	₦1.82bn	₦1.82bn	49%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	203	171	₦507m	₦507m	91%	1.1 yr
Place Of Worship	199	168	₦58.2m	₦58.2m	69%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	197	163	₦96.6m	₦96.6m	69%	1.6 yr
School	159	133	₦366m	₦366m	89%	1.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	96,881	15,705	₦30.1bn	₦29.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	95,491	14,663	₦22.5bn	₦22.2bn	17%	6.1 yr
Enterprise	790	615	₦5.16bn	₦5.16bn	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	600	427	₦2.37bn	₦2.37bn	51%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	48,591	4,159	₦413m	₦413m
3.0	20,554	6,052	₦23bn	₦22.8bn
2.0	16,521	3,362	₦3.25bn	₦3.1bn
1.0	5,854	1,277	₦570m	₦570m
4.0	5,165	764	₦1.98bn	₦1.98bn
5.0	186	85	₦783m	₦783m
6.0	10	6	₦102m	₦102m