Plateau State

Rooftop solar in Jos North, Plateau: what the roofs are worth

Jos North has 218,172 buildings with a viable rooftop and 3.96 GWp of roof capacity. 25% run a generator, and together they spend ₦70.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

218,172

Usable roof area

17.7 km²

3.96 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦70.2bn/yr

48.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Jos North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦70.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦69.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦4.07tn

NPV₦585bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy102 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity289 MWp

Capex₦282bn

Year-one energy value₦191bn

Lifetime energy value₦8.95tn

NPV₦1.44tn

Median IRR71%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Jos North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 289 MWp
Capital cost: ₦282bn
Year 1 savings: ₦191bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.44tn
Median IRR: 71%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Jos North pays back quickly

Of the 214,452 buildings in Jos North with a modelled payback, 65.2% pay back inside five years and 23.7% inside three.

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How much of Jos North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Jos North consume 190 GWh/yr but want 292 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Jos North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Jos North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 214,452 buildings with a modelled result out of 218,172 in Jos North. 177,403 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years50,892 (24%)

Under 5 years139,900 (65%)

Under 7 years177,852 (83%)

Under 10 years197,453 (92%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%194,681 (89%)

Above 15%177,403 (81%)

Above 20%150,878 (69%)

Above 25%118,528 (54%)

CO₂ avoided

157 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

21.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

102 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

282k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Jos North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Jos North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	203,333	49,441	₦65bn	₦64.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
B	12,836	5,084	₦4.1bn	₦4.01bn	31%	3.4 yr
C	1,207	262	₦909m	₦832m	17%	6.4 yr
E	425	3	₦31.5m	₦31.5m	5%	16.9 yr
D	371	98	₦150m	₦150m	9%	9.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	204,334	49,387	₦28bn	₦27.8bn	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	6,146	2,403	₦26.4bn	₦26.3bn	39%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	4,293	1,853	₦831m	₦831m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	1,559	600	₦11.6bn	₦11.6bn	47%	2.1 yr
Worship	1,040	358	₦521m	₦521m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	338	117	₦1.93bn	₦1.77bn	39%	2.9 yr
Industrial	240	114	₦654m	₦653m	41%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	132	35	₦114m	₦114m	39%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	45	11	₦36.2m	₦36.2m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	40	9	₦62.4m	₦62.4m	39%	2.9 yr
Automotive	5	1	₦5.54m	₦5.54m	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	61,189	16,815	₦18.9bn	₦18.9bn	31%	3.4 yr
Under 30m2	57,526	13,611	₦1.3bn	₦1.28bn	15%	6.1 yr
50 100m2	51,374	11,355	₦3.54bn	₦3.52bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	32,459	7,261	₦1.21bn	₦1.18bn	21%	5.1 yr
250 1000m2	15,247	5,653	₦30.9bn	₦30.6bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	377	193	₦14.3bn	₦14.1bn	41%	2.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	176,511	37,906	₦47.2bn	₦46.9bn	25%	4.1 yr
Urban	24,107	9,602	₦13.2bn	₦13.1bn	31%	3.4 yr
Dense Urban	9,296	5,120	₦4.78bn	₦4.78bn	47%	2.4 yr
Unclassified	8,189	2,259	₦4.92bn	₦4.79bn	29%	3.9 yr
Rural	69	1	₦25.9m	₦25.9m	9%	9.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	101,883	20,715	₦6.22bn	₦6.18bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	29,769	7,942	₦745m	₦745m	23%	4.9 yr
Residential Formal	28,537	1,923	₦527m	₦527m	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Small	24,231	10,235	₦2.58bn	₦2.55bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	16,495	8,159	₦17.9bn	₦17.7bn	33%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	4,288	1,856	₦804m	₦804m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	3,262	1,028	₦12.4bn	₦12.3bn	39%	2.6 yr
Apartment	2,545	341	₦63.6m	₦63.6m	27%	3.9 yr
Commercial	1,460	866	₦9.34bn	₦9.32bn	47%	2.4 yr
Duplex	865	67	₦18.9m	₦18.9m	27%	4.1 yr
Place Of Worship	760	249	₦316m	₦316m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	755	289	₦5.25bn	₦5.25bn	35%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	217,603	54,668	₦69.3bn	₦68.8bn
Retail	257	35	₦28.1m	₦28.1m
Industrial	180	137	₦815m	₦815m
Farmland	91	12	₦6.25m	₦6.25m
Commercial	33	33	₦6.51m	₦6.51m
Farmyard	8	3	₦5.4m	₦5.4m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	211,354	52,215	₦35.4bn	₦35bn	25%	4.1 yr
SME High	5,169	2,018	₦22.9bn	₦22.9bn	39%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	1,649	655	₦11.9bn	₦11.8bn	47%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	75,401	12,941	₦19.1bn	₦19.1bn
3.0	65,646	20,903	₦26.3bn	₦26.1bn
2.0	38,222	10,051	₦1.92bn	₦1.9bn
0.0	24,539	7,679	₦676m	₦676m
1.0	11,088	1,853	₦233m	₦233m
5.0	2,504	1,084	₦9.52bn	₦9.5bn
6.0	772	377	₦12.4bn	₦12.2bn