Plateau State

Rooftop solar in Jos East, Plateau: what the roofs are worth

Jos East has 31,319 buildings with a viable rooftop and 259 MWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦4.84bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

31,319

Usable roof area

1.17 km²

259 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦4.84bn/yr

4.18 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Jos East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦4.84bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦4.79bn

Lifetime cash saved₦255bn

NPV₦39.9bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback13.9 yr

Unlocked energy5.24 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity31.1 MWp

Capex₦33.5bn

Year-one energy value₦37.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.8tn

NPV₦312bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Jos East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 31.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦33.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦37.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦312bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Jos East pays back quickly

Of the 30,501 buildings in Jos East with a modelled payback, 33.1% pay back inside five years and 8.2% inside three.

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How much of Jos East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Jos East consume 8.43 GWh/yr but want 13.7 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Jos East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Jos East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 30,501 buildings with a modelled result out of 31,319 in Jos East. 11,508 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,513 (8%)

Under 5 years10,083 (33%)

Under 7 years11,521 (38%)

Under 10 years13,570 (44%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%12,717 (41%)

Above 15%11,508 (37%)

Above 20%10,502 (34%)

Above 25%9,340 (30%)

CO₂ avoided

9.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.29 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

5.24 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

139k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Jos East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Jos East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	13,367	1,008	₦2.31bn	₦2.28bn	7%	13.6 yr
D	8,553	337	₦754m	₦750m	7%	15.4 yr
E	7,146	447	₦503m	₦503m	7%	15.1 yr
B	2,247	697	₦1.27bn	₦1.26bn	31%	3.4 yr
A	6	0	₦17.3k	₦17.3k	11%	8.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	30,587	1,934	₦3.61bn	₦3.58bn	7%	14.1 yr
Worship	336	234	₦102m	₦102m	61%	1.6 yr
Anchor	207	168	₦789m	₦774m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	159	132	₦221m	₦221m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	26	21	₦113m	₦113m	73%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	4	0	₦31.9k	₦31.9k	15%	3.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	15,897	716	₦85.7m	₦85.4m	5%	17.6 yr
30 50m2	6,394	394	₦116m	₦116m	9%	13.1 yr
50 100m2	5,477	548	₦489m	₦489m	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	3,041	616	₦1.97bn	₦1.94bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	495	204	₦1.56bn	₦1.56bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	15	11	₦616m	₦602m	75%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	14,837	364	₦1.25bn	₦1.22bn	5%	16.1 yr
Urban	10,054	1,513	₦2.71bn	₦2.7bn	17%	5.9 yr
Rural	6,422	612	₦876m	₦872m	9%	12.9 yr
Dense Urban	6	0	₦17.3k	₦17.3k	11%	8.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	19,718	638	₦77.2m	₦77.2m	5%	16.6 yr
Residential Small	7,326	659	₦558m	₦558m	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	3,537	634	₦2.97bn	₦2.94bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	252	190	₦438m	₦424m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	123	86	₦24.4m	₦24.4m	67%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	99	69	₦12.9m	₦12.9m	65%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	67	52	₦114m	₦114m	91%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	48	37	₦411m	₦411m	57%	1.9 yr
School	48	41	₦37.3m	₦37.3m	87%	1.1 yr
Clinic	32	27	₦38.8m	₦38.8m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial Site	23	20	₦110m	₦110m	73%	1.4 yr
Commercial	15	13	₦31.1m	₦31.1m	73%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	31,319	2,489	₦4.84bn	₦4.79bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	31,071	2,287	₦3.9bn	₦3.87bn	7%	13.9 yr
Enterprise	233	189	₦902m	₦887m	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	15	13	₦31.1m	₦31.1m	73%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	19,755	658	₦80.6m	₦80.6m
2.0	4,798	692	₦1.23bn	₦1.21bn
3.0	3,422	699	₦3.26bn	₦3.24bn
1.0	3,341	437	₦249m	₦249m
4.0	3	3	₦10.9m	₦10.9m