Plateau State

Rooftop solar in Kanke, Plateau: what the roofs are worth

Kanke has 61,343 buildings with a viable rooftop and 394 MWp of roof capacity. 12% run a generator, and together they spend ₦5.94bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

61,343

Usable roof area

1.78 km²

394 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦5.94bn/yr

5.71 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kanke

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦5.94bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦5.91bn

Lifetime cash saved₦315bn

NPV₦49.1bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback13.9 yr

Unlocked energy6.98 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity36.2 MWp

Capex₦38.8bn

Year-one energy value₦41.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.98tn

NPV₦342bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Kanke's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 36.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦38.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦41.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦342bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kanke pays back quickly

Of the 60,780 buildings in Kanke with a modelled payback, 27.8% pay back inside five years and 12.9% inside three.

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How much of Kanke's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kanke consume 9.87 GWh/yr but want 16.8 GWh/yr. The 41% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kanke

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kanke actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 60,780 buildings with a modelled result out of 61,343 in Kanke. 20,702 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,843 (13%)

Under 5 years16,882 (28%)

Under 7 years20,731 (34%)

Under 10 years26,619 (44%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%24,252 (40%)

Above 15%20,702 (34%)

Above 20%17,812 (29%)

Above 25%15,249 (25%)

CO₂ avoided

11.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.82 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

6.98 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

115k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kanke.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kanke

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	24,457	3,180	₦2.44bn	₦2.42bn	9%	13.6 yr
D	18,346	2,212	₦1.78bn	₦1.78bn	9%	13.6 yr
E	17,180	2,069	₦1.66bn	₦1.66bn	7%	14.4 yr
B	1,360	3	₦52m	₦52m	19%	5.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	59,210	6,064	₦3.74bn	₦3.72bn	7%	14.1 yr
Commercial Retail	991	617	₦132m	₦132m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	654	376	₦967m	₦967m	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	355	299	₦954m	₦953m	83%	1.4 yr
Worship	96	83	₦85.1m	₦85.1m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	35	25	₦54.6m	₦54.6m	73%	1.4 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦18.5k	₦18.5k	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦102k	₦102k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	34,761	3,202	₦321m	₦320m	5%	16.6 yr
30 50m2	12,992	1,675	₦390m	₦390m	9%	9.6 yr
50 100m2	9,188	1,446	₦1.18bn	₦1.16bn	27%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	3,848	911	₦2.22bn	₦2.22bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	544	224	₦1.5bn	₦1.5bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	10	6	₦326m	₦326m	69%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	22,909	2,168	₦1.75bn	₦1.75bn	7%	15.6 yr
Urban	17,245	2,197	₦1.73bn	₦1.73bn	7%	13.9 yr
Dense Urban	12,863	961	₦590m	₦590m	13%	7.9 yr
Rural	8,326	2,138	₦1.86bn	₦1.84bn	11%	8.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	41,134	3,495	₦290m	₦290m	7%	15.9 yr
Residential Small	10,728	1,531	₦1.2bn	₦1.18bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential	5,137	1,033	₦2.24bn	₦2.24bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	2,198	0	₦14.6m	₦14.6m	15%	7.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	991	617	₦132m	₦132m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	411	196	₦636m	₦636m	39%	2.9 yr
Institutional	248	198	₦511m	₦511m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	119	104	₦173m	₦173m	93%	1.1 yr
School	97	83	₦107m	₦107m	91%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	69	55	₦318m	₦318m	59%	1.9 yr
Clinic	49	41	₦131m	₦130m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial Site	35	25	₦54.6m	₦54.6m	73%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	61,343	7,464	₦5.94bn	₦5.91bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	60,534	6,940	₦4.29bn	₦4.27bn	7%	13.9 yr
SME High	419	200	₦641m	₦641m	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	390	324	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	79%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	41,156	3,509	₦291m	₦291m
2.0	6,999	1,350	₦1.87bn	₦1.86bn
1.0	6,924	1,559	₦674m	₦672m
3.0	4,557	1,002	₦2.61bn	₦2.61bn
4.0	1,696	41	₦288m	₦288m
5.0	9	2	₦65.5m	₦65.5m
6.0	2	1	₦128m	₦128m