Osun State

Rooftop solar in Osogbo, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Osogbo has 99,093 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.72 GWp of roof capacity. 15% run a generator, and together they spend ₦47.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

99,093

Usable roof area

12.1 km²

2.72 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦47.4bn/yr

33.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Osogbo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦47.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦46.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.72tn

NPV₦366bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy72 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity263 MWp

Capex₦239bn

Year-one energy value₦139bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.47tn

NPV₦1.01tn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Osogbo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 263 MWp
Capital cost: ₦239bn
Year 1 savings: ₦139bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.01tn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Osogbo pays back quickly

Of the 96,945 buildings in Osogbo with a modelled payback, 69.1% pay back inside five years and 13.0% inside three.

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How much of Osogbo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Osogbo consume 134 GWh/yr but want 206 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Osogbo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Osogbo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 96,945 buildings with a modelled result out of 99,093 in Osogbo. 81,546 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years12,575 (13%)

Under 5 years66,988 (69%)

Under 7 years81,427 (84%)

Under 10 years89,456 (92%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%88,529 (89%)

Above 15%81,546 (82%)

Above 20%71,705 (72%)

Above 25%53,723 (54%)

CO₂ avoided

107 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

13.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

72 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

187k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Osogbo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Osogbo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	70,433	10,321	₦32.7bn	₦32.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	14,639	1,996	₦4.26bn	₦4.23bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	13,606	2,598	₦10bn	₦9.87bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	342	63	₦264m	₦264m	25%	4.4 yr
E	73	39	₦189m	₦189m	71%	1.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	90,304	11,350	₦15bn	₦14.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	4,874	2,088	₦20bn	₦19.9bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	2,349	1,005	₦390m	₦390m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	968	377	₦10.9bn	₦10.7bn	41%	2.6 yr
Industrial	218	88	₦401m	₦392m	37%	2.9 yr
Worship	165	54	₦99.1m	₦99.1m	33%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	91	28	₦80.8m	₦80.8m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	82	14	₦443m	₦399m	33%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	27	10	₦62.5m	₦62.5m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	14	3	₦23.8m	₦23.8m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	1	0	₦95.4k	₦95.4k	29%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	38,121	5,319	₦11.7bn	₦11.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	19,186	2,787	₦467m	₦462m	11%	7.6 yr
250 1000m2	16,965	3,119	₦22bn	₦21.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	14,705	2,156	₦1.47bn	₦1.43bn	23%	4.9 yr
30 50m2	9,887	1,536	₦452m	₦450m	19%	5.6 yr
Over 1000m2	229	100	₦11.3bn	₦11.1bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	94,815	13,668	₦43.9bn	₦43.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	2,496	626	₦1.86bn	₦1.81bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	1,782	723	₦1.59bn	₦1.56bn	25%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	37,930	2,979	₦3.11bn	₦3.11bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	31,530	3,431	₦3.1bn	₦3.05bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	6,895	513	₦503m	₦503m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	5,269	2,151	₦7.19bn	₦7.09bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	3,392	1,240	₦780m	₦779m	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	3,027	890	₦135m	₦135m	23%	4.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,343	1,002	₦380m	₦380m	33%	3.4 yr
Duplex	2,243	146	₦165m	₦165m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial	1,891	827	₦8.51bn	₦8.44bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,760	834	₦8.5bn	₦8.48bn	35%	3.1 yr
Unknown	606	226	₦1.59bn	₦1.59bn	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	529	199	₦8.16bn	₦8.11bn	31%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	99,093	15,017	₦47.4bn	₦46.9bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	94,112	12,855	₦18.9bn	₦18.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	3,836	1,718	₦17.3bn	₦17.2bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	1,145	444	₦11.2bn	₦11bn	39%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	62,004	6,077	₦19.1bn	₦18.9bn
3.0	19,777	4,571	₦12.3bn	₦12.2bn
2.0	9,699	1,792	₦562m	₦560m
0.0	2,609	869	₦126m	₦126m
5.0	2,218	861	₦6.66bn	₦6.64bn
1.0	2,013	441	₦120m	₦120m
6.0	773	406	₦8.51bn	₦8.38bn