Osun State

Rooftop solar in Ilesha West, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Ilesha West has 74,907 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.91 GWp of roof capacity. 22% run a generator, and together they spend ₦23bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

74,907

Usable roof area

8.49 km²

1.91 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦23bn/yr

18.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ilesha West

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦23bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦22.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.31tn

NPV₦180bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy29 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity108 MWp

Capex₦106bn

Year-one energy value₦69.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.27tn

NPV₦522bn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ilesha West's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 108 MWp
Capital cost: ₦106bn
Year 1 savings: ₦69.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦522bn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ilesha West pays back quickly

Of the 73,995 buildings in Ilesha West with a modelled payback, 66.7% pay back inside five years and 20.4% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Ilesha West's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ilesha West consume 51.9 GWh/yr but want 80.8 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Ilesha West

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ilesha West actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 73,995 buildings with a modelled result out of 74,907 in Ilesha West. 62,610 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years15,124 (20%)

Under 5 years49,375 (67%)

Under 7 years62,496 (84%)

Under 10 years68,794 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%68,010 (91%)

Above 15%62,610 (84%)

Above 20%53,427 (71%)

Above 25%37,248 (50%)

CO₂ avoided

48.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.77 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

29 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

133k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ilesha West.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ilesha West

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	57,737	10,943	₦12.8bn	₦12.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	11,806	2,582	₦4.17bn	₦4.13bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	3,994	1,992	₦1.72bn	₦1.72bn	25%	4.1 yr
E	1,370	670	₦4.36bn	₦4.31bn	29%	2.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	72,817	15,175	₦12.9bn	₦12.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	965	451	₦5.02bn	₦5.02bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	596	284	₦4.26bn	₦4.24bn	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	189	78	₦56.5m	₦56.5m	33%	3.4 yr
Industrial	185	116	₦437m	₦435m	41%	2.6 yr
Worship	74	41	₦35.5m	₦35.5m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	38	18	₦31.3m	₦31.3m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	34	24	₦205m	₦205m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	7	0	₦5.59m	₦5.59m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	1	0	₦188k	₦188k	29%	3.6 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦17.2k	₦17.2k	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	30,292	6,112	₦7.24bn	₦7.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	15,033	3,144	₦337m	₦333m	13%	7.6 yr
50 100m2	11,467	2,210	₦723m	₦722m	23%	4.9 yr
250 1000m2	9,943	3,026	₦10.6bn	₦10.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	8,052	1,641	₦353m	₦305m	19%	5.9 yr
Over 1000m2	120	54	₦3.75bn	₦3.75bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	69,106	14,528	₦18bn	₦18bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	3,348	1,112	₦3.77bn	₦3.74bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	2,316	474	₦997m	₦949m	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	137	73	₦196m	₦196m	61%	1.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	25,091	3,572	₦2.86bn	₦2.86bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	24,167	5,416	₦3.05bn	₦3.05bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	8,962	2,492	₦5.83bn	₦5.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	5,155	1,579	₦232m	₦232m	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Small	4,911	1,154	₦459m	₦410m	23%	4.9 yr
Apartment	2,792	554	₦318m	₦318m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	1,687	387	₦183m	₦183m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	410	223	₦3.58bn	₦3.58bn	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	296	37	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	35%	3.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	187	77	₦53.2m	₦53.2m	33%	3.4 yr
Educational Facility	173	90	₦504m	₦504m	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial	168	165	₦2.49bn	₦2.49bn	69%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	74,907	16,187	₦23bn	₦22.9bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	73,604	15,561	₦14.4bn	₦14.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	773	395	₦4.69bn	₦4.67bn	41%	2.6 yr
SME High	530	231	₦3.9bn	₦3.9bn	35%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	36,510	7,558	₦11.6bn	₦11.5bn
3.0	21,665	5,235	₦9.62bn	₦9.54bn
2.0	9,395	1,410	₦369m	₦367m
0.0	4,837	1,498	₦210m	₦210m
1.0	2,277	460	₦106m	₦106m
5.0	210	23	₦889m	₦889m
6.0	13	3	₦237m	₦237m