Osun State

Rooftop solar in Ifelodun, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Ifelodun has 66,001 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.08 GWp of roof capacity. 5% run a generator, and together they spend ₦12.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

66,001

Usable roof area

9.21 km²

2.08 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦12.1bn/yr

8.43 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.9 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ifelodun

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦12.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦11.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦701bn

NPV₦95.2bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback4.9 yr

Unlocked energy19.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity90.4 MWp

Capex₦88.5bn

Year-one energy value₦57.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.72tn

NPV₦436bn

Median IRR67%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ifelodun's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 90.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦88.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦57.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦436bn
Median IRR: 67%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ifelodun pays back quickly

Of the 63,372 buildings in Ifelodun with a modelled payback, 51.1% pay back inside five years and 4.5% inside three.

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How much of Ifelodun's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ifelodun consume 30.7 GWh/yr but want 49.8 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ifelodun

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ifelodun actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 63,372 buildings with a modelled result out of 66,001 in Ifelodun. 46,904 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,876 (5%)

Under 5 years32,392 (51%)

Under 7 years46,843 (74%)

Under 10 years55,191 (87%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%54,132 (82%)

Above 15%46,904 (71%)

Above 20%36,602 (55%)

Above 25%24,215 (37%)

CO₂ avoided

27.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.04 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

19.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

104k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ifelodun.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ifelodun

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	39,900	426	₦4.63bn	₦4.63bn	21%	5.1 yr
D	17,208	509	₦1.86bn	₦1.8bn	21%	5.1 yr
E	7,779	2,308	₦5.58bn	₦5.41bn	25%	4.1 yr
B	1,114	5	₦49.8m	₦49.8m	23%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	64,037	2,712	₦6.03bn	₦5.82bn	21%	5.1 yr
Anchor	698	127	₦4.23bn	₦4.21bn	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial General	644	206	₦1.25bn	₦1.25bn	31%	3.4 yr
Industrial	448	114	₦500m	₦498m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	81	12	₦70.5m	₦70.5m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	71	68	₦26.7m	₦26.7m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship	15	6	₦2.47m	₦2.47m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	5	2	₦11.8m	₦11.8m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	2	1	₦6.13m	₦6.13m	35%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	27,110	1,319	₦3.8bn	₦3.8bn	25%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	13,023	662	₦3.86bn	₦3.67bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	9,278	448	₦434m	₦399m	15%	7.1 yr
Under 30m2	9,251	450	₦122m	₦120m	7%	9.9 yr
30 50m2	6,032	325	₦119m	₦119m	13%	7.6 yr
Over 1000m2	1,307	44	₦3.79bn	₦3.79bn	27%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	33,562	415	₦1.72bn	₦1.72bn	21%	4.9 yr
(Unset)	23,246	982	₦2.7bn	₦2.7bn	21%	5.4 yr
Urban	4,481	922	₦5.3bn	₦5.13bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	2,808	199	₦1.12bn	₦1.06bn	19%	5.4 yr
Dense Urban	1,904	730	₦1.28bn	₦1.28bn	25%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	22,120	25	₦447m	₦447m	21%	4.9 yr
Residential Informal	19,581	447	₦363m	₦363m	21%	5.1 yr
Residential	11,226	1,200	₦4.72bn	₦4.54bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	5,656	551	₦124m	₦124m	19%	5.9 yr
Residential Small	4,269	440	₦362m	₦327m	15%	6.6 yr
Residential Large	924	48	₦11.8m	₦11.8m	15%	6.6 yr
Institutional	851	137	₦3.77bn	₦3.77bn	33%	3.4 yr
Duplex	198	0	₦3.96m	₦3.96m	25%	4.6 yr
Unknown	161	34	₦183m	₦183m	31%	3.4 yr
Industrial Site	155	59	₦231m	₦231m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	142	27	₦179m	₦179m	37%	2.9 yr
School	118	33	₦111m	₦111m	43%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	66,001	3,248	₦12.1bn	₦11.9bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	64,693	2,921	₦6.75bn	₦6.53bn	21%	4.9 yr
Enterprise	1,146	241	₦4.73bn	₦4.71bn	33%	3.4 yr
SME High	162	86	₦651m	₦651m	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	24,753	225	₦3.53bn	₦3.53bn
3.0	21,036	1,478	₦6.71bn	₦6.51bn
2.0	12,750	771	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn
0.0	4,015	503	₦87.2m	₦87.2m
1.0	3,337	260	₦211m	₦176m
5.0	84	9	₦275m	₦275m
6.0	26	2	₦71.9m	₦71.9m