Osun State

Rooftop solar in Oriade, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Oriade has 43,718 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.05 GWp of roof capacity. 21% run a generator, and together they spend ₦21.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

43,718

Usable roof area

4.69 km²

1.05 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦21.2bn/yr

19.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Oriade

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦21.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦21.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.13tn

NPV₦170bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy16.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity89.8 MWp

Capex₦90.4bn

Year-one energy value₦75.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.58tn

NPV₦597bn

Median IRR87%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Oriade's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 89.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦90.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦75.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦597bn
Median IRR: 87%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Oriade pays back quickly

Of the 42,510 buildings in Oriade with a modelled payback, 60.7% pay back inside five years and 21.3% inside three.

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How much of Oriade's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Oriade consume 33.3 GWh/yr but want 49.4 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Oriade

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Oriade actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 42,510 buildings with a modelled result out of 43,718 in Oriade. 32,708 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,057 (21%)

Under 5 years25,811 (61%)

Under 7 years32,652 (77%)

Under 10 years36,965 (87%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%36,274 (83%)

Above 15%32,708 (75%)

Above 20%27,731 (63%)

Above 25%18,216 (42%)

CO₂ avoided

38.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

10.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

16.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

175k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Oriade.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Oriade

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	18,475	3,487	₦9.33bn	₦9.31bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	18,033	4,797	₦10bn	₦10bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	7,207	853	₦1.8bn	₦1.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	3	0	₦565k	₦565k	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	41,953	8,043	₦15bn	₦15bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	643	384	₦1.82bn	₦1.82bn	45%	2.4 yr
Anchor	428	322	₦3.44bn	₦3.43bn	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	384	259	₦795m	₦792m	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	270	104	₦27.2m	₦27.2m	33%	3.4 yr
Filling Station	24	15	₦25.6m	₦25.6m	35%	2.4 yr
Worship	10	5	₦8.98m	₦8.98m	33%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	6	5	₦65.3m	₦65.3m	47%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	17,529	3,673	₦7.43bn	₦7.41bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	8,636	1,794	₦258m	₦255m	9%	9.9 yr
50 100m2	7,982	1,284	₦764m	₦764m	21%	5.1 yr
30 50m2	4,829	937	₦258m	₦258m	15%	7.1 yr
250 1000m2	4,638	1,412	₦9.86bn	₦9.86bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	104	37	₦2.61bn	₦2.61bn	27%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	21,130	4,784	₦8.4bn	₦8.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	11,916	3,192	₦8.74bn	₦8.71bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	6,654	710	₦3.4bn	₦3.4bn	23%	4.4 yr
Rural	2,520	270	₦363m	₦363m	19%	5.6 yr
Urban Centre	1,498	181	₦276m	₦276m	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	13,269	3,350	₦12.2bn	₦12.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	11,117	2,209	₦885m	₦885m	19%	5.4 yr
Residential Formal	9,746	1,275	₦1.46bn	₦1.46bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	5,638	1,001	₦144m	₦144m	9%	9.9 yr
Apartment	1,175	132	₦171m	₦171m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	733	75	₦79.4m	₦79.4m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	413	285	₦2.31bn	₦2.31bn	51%	2.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	270	104	₦27.2m	₦27.2m	33%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	234	0	₦18.5m	₦18.5m	25%	4.4 yr
Industrial Site	201	128	₦468m	₦466m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial	195	115	₦585m	₦585m	35%	3.1 yr
Educational Facility	123	102	₦719m	₦719m	77%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	43,718	9,137	₦21.2bn	₦21.2bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	42,610	8,410	₦16.2bn	₦16.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	805	575	₦4.23bn	₦4.22bn	55%	1.9 yr
SME High	303	152	₦753m	₦753m	35%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	20,479	5,276	₦17.2bn	₦17.2bn
4.0	10,906	1,497	₦2.87bn	₦2.87bn
0.0	5,631	994	₦142m	₦142m
2.0	5,390	1,056	₦640m	₦626m
1.0	1,199	274	₦50.9m	₦50.9m
5.0	98	32	₦179m	₦179m
6.0	15	8	₦66.8m	₦66.8m