Osun State

Rooftop solar in Ede North, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Ede North has 61,302 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.59 GWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦13.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

61,302

Usable roof area

7.04 km²

1.59 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦13.4bn/yr

13.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.9 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ede North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦13.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦712bn

NPV₦101bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback4.9 yr

Unlocked energy15.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity70 MWp

Capex₦66.9bn

Year-one energy value₦46.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.19tn

NPV₦356bn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ede North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 70 MWp
Capital cost: ₦66.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦46.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦356bn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ede North pays back quickly

Of the 58,119 buildings in Ede North with a modelled payback, 52.8% pay back inside five years and 7.8% inside three.

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How much of Ede North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ede North consume 29.7 GWh/yr but want 45 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ede North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ede North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 58,119 buildings with a modelled result out of 61,302 in Ede North. 42,535 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,530 (8%)

Under 5 years30,671 (53%)

Under 7 years42,410 (73%)

Under 10 years50,427 (87%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%49,435 (81%)

Above 15%42,535 (69%)

Above 20%34,258 (56%)

Above 25%18,103 (30%)

CO₂ avoided

25.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.65 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

15.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

93.4k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ede North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ede North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	39,107	2,114	₦5.55bn	₦5.27bn	21%	4.9 yr
D	16,331	1,761	₦5.23bn	₦5.18bn	21%	4.9 yr
E	2,993	270	₦1.38bn	₦1.32bn	19%	5.4 yr
B	2,871	600	₦1.28bn	₦1.14bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	59,186	3,588	₦4.46bn	₦4.26bn	21%	4.9 yr
Commercial General	1,035	612	₦6.67bn	₦6.47bn	41%	2.6 yr
Industrial	403	219	₦626m	₦618m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	338	145	₦1.52bn	₦1.39bn	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	256	162	₦85m	₦85m	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	37	8	₦7.65m	₦7.65m	33%	3.4 yr
Filling Station	32	8	₦19m	₦19m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	11	3	₦54.6m	₦54.6m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦4.4m	₦4.4m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	2	0	₦198k	₦198k	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	28,238	1,916	₦4.52bn	₦4.45bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	10,059	750	₦564m	₦508m	15%	6.6 yr
Under 30m2	9,444	715	₦156m	₦153m	5%	12.6 yr
250 1000m2	7,601	859	₦6.88bn	₦6.68bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	5,911	490	₦162m	₦161m	11%	8.1 yr
Over 1000m2	49	15	₦1.16bn	₦954m	27%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	53,862	3,918	₦11.2bn	₦11bn	21%	4.9 yr
Urban	4,474	558	₦1.2bn	₦1.06bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	2,506	246	₦983m	₦785m	21%	5.1 yr
Rural	460	23	₦61.7m	₦61.7m	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	28,716	1,264	₦921m	₦921m	19%	5.1 yr
Residential Informal	8,004	122	₦190m	₦190m	19%	5.4 yr
Residential	7,632	1,007	₦2.73bn	₦2.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	5,445	628	₦361m	₦306m	19%	5.6 yr
Apartment	4,219	174	₦126m	₦126m	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	3,040	307	₦57.7m	₦57.7m	17%	6.1 yr
Duplex	2,076	80	₦57.5m	₦57.5m	23%	4.6 yr
Institutional	366	180	₦1.27bn	₦1.14bn	31%	3.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	328	293	₦4.54bn	₦4.35bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial	326	168	₦1.56bn	₦1.55bn	37%	2.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	255	161	₦76.9m	₦76.9m	49%	2.1 yr
Industrial Site	204	108	₦401m	₦394m	39%	2.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	61,302	4,745	₦13.4bn	₦12.9bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	59,889	3,920	₦5.18bn	₦4.99bn	21%	4.9 yr
Enterprise	717	355	₦2.13bn	₦1.99bn	41%	2.6 yr
SME High	696	470	₦6.13bn	₦5.94bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	37,414	1,899	₦6.54bn	₦6.48bn
3.0	15,670	1,877	₦4.72bn	₦4.39bn
2.0	4,052	378	₦171m	₦169m
0.0	2,782	311	₦63.2m	₦63.2m
1.0	1,107	186	₦77.9m	₦77.9m
5.0	226	86	₦1.68bn	₦1.55bn
6.0	51	8	₦182m	₦182m