Osun State

Rooftop solar in Ejigbo, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Ejigbo has 47,209 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.14 GWp of roof capacity. 31% run a generator, and together they spend ₦32.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

47,209

Usable roof area

5.06 km²

1.14 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦32.5bn/yr

31.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ejigbo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦32.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦31.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.65tn

NPV₦256bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy21.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity110 MWp

Capex₦110bn

Year-one energy value₦94.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.49tn

NPV₦753bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ejigbo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 110 MWp
Capital cost: ₦110bn
Year 1 savings: ₦94.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦753bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ejigbo pays back quickly

Of the 46,661 buildings in Ejigbo with a modelled payback, 69.4% pay back inside five years and 30.7% inside three.

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How much of Ejigbo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ejigbo consume 47.6 GWh/yr but want 68.8 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ejigbo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ejigbo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 46,661 buildings with a modelled result out of 47,209 in Ejigbo. 37,634 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,348 (31%)

Under 5 years32,381 (69%)

Under 7 years37,581 (81%)

Under 10 years41,710 (89%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%41,012 (87%)

Above 15%37,634 (80%)

Above 20%34,019 (72%)

Above 25%27,166 (58%)

CO₂ avoided

54.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

16.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

21.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

180k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ejigbo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ejigbo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	27,800	9,614	₦19.2bn	₦19bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	17,874	4,780	₦13.1bn	₦12.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	1,535	47	₦151m	₦151m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	44,867	12,980	₦21.5bn	₦20.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	1,180	595	₦5.79bn	₦5.75bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	477	443	₦4.61bn	₦4.47bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	388	187	₦115m	₦115m	33%	3.4 yr
Productive Use	101	86	₦109m	₦109m	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	77	56	₦87.9m	₦87.9m	49%	2.1 yr
Industrial	63	46	₦144m	₦144m	61%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	29	24	₦38m	₦38m	57%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	18	17	₦55.9m	₦55.9m	41%	2.4 yr
Mall Retail	9	7	₦21.1m	₦21.1m	53%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	19,552	6,131	₦15.7bn	₦15.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	9,694	2,728	₦406m	₦405m	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	7,633	2,301	₦1.49bn	₦1.48bn	23%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	5,360	1,722	₦12.1bn	₦11.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	4,935	1,538	₦436m	₦436m	17%	6.4 yr
Over 1000m2	35	21	₦2.36bn	₦2.29bn	57%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	22,741	4,407	₦10.3bn	₦10.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	10,915	4,738	₦12.2bn	₦12.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	4,733	3,027	₦4.52bn	₦4.45bn	71%	1.4 yr
Unclassified	4,570	738	₦3.43bn	₦2.91bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	4,250	1,531	₦2.07bn	₦2.07bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	13,426	1,681	₦1.56bn	₦1.56bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	13,146	5,054	₦17.3bn	₦16.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	8,783	3,686	₦2.02bn	₦1.76bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	6,853	2,309	₦408m	₦408m	11%	9.1 yr
Apartment	1,632	180	₦170m	₦170m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	756	224	₦3.22bn	₦3.22bn	35%	3.1 yr
Residential Informal	550	0	₦29.7m	₦29.7m	23%	4.6 yr
Duplex	472	68	₦50.4m	₦50.4m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	458	243	₦159m	₦159m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	253	228	₦2.23bn	₦2.23bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial	157	146	₦1.58bn	₦1.55bn	69%	1.6 yr
School	129	121	₦327m	₦327m	77%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	47,070	14,394	₦31.7bn	₦31bn
Commercial	116	47	₦761m	₦730m
Industrial	11	0	₦4.73m	₦4.73m
Farmland	6	0	₦1.27m	₦1.27m
Farmyard	6	0	₦441k	₦441k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	45,727	13,559	₦22.9bn	₦22.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	950	398	₦4.86bn	₦4.83bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	532	484	₦4.73bn	₦4.6bn	61%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	19,675	7,926	₦23.2bn	₦22.5bn
4.0	15,600	2,254	₦6.62bn	₦6.58bn
0.0	6,436	1,949	₦310m	₦310m
2.0	4,073	1,538	₦1.06bn	₦1.05bn
1.0	1,253	741	₦245m	₦245m
5.0	170	32	₦835m	₦833m
6.0	2	1	₦151m	₦151m