Osun State

Rooftop solar in Ayedade, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Ayedade has 48,717 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.03 GWp of roof capacity. 12% run a generator, and together they spend ₦12.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

48,717

Usable roof area

4.57 km²

1.03 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦12.9bn/yr

10.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ayedade

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦12.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦745bn

NPV₦105bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy19.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity102 MWp

Capex₦96bn

Year-one energy value₦74bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.48tn

NPV₦576bn

Median IRR81%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ayedade's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 102 MWp
Capital cost: ₦96bn
Year 1 savings: ₦74bn/yr
NPV: ₦576bn
Median IRR: 81%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ayedade pays back quickly

Of the 47,408 buildings in Ayedade with a modelled payback, 55.7% pay back inside five years and 11.6% inside three.

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How much of Ayedade's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ayedade consume 30.9 GWh/yr but want 50.7 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ayedade

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ayedade actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 47,408 buildings with a modelled result out of 48,717 in Ayedade. 34,689 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,489 (12%)

Under 5 years26,422 (56%)

Under 7 years34,621 (73%)

Under 10 years39,044 (82%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%38,454 (79%)

Above 15%34,689 (71%)

Above 20%29,113 (60%)

Above 25%10,588 (22%)

CO₂ avoided

28.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.55 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

19.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

209k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ayedade.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ayedade

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	30,702	3,559	₦6.47bn	₦6.47bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	16,739	2,131	₦6.37bn	₦6.36bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	1,276	19	₦81.2m	₦81.2m	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	44,994	3,554	₦5.48bn	₦5.46bn	23%	4.9 yr
Commercial General	2,253	1,338	₦5.68bn	₦5.68bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	779	426	₦119m	₦119m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	440	283	₦1.33bn	₦1.33bn	49%	2.1 yr
Industrial	209	86	₦259m	₦259m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	30	19	₦33m	₦33m	47%	2.1 yr
Worship	7	1	₦1.91m	₦1.91m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	3	2	₦15.8m	₦15.8m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦431k	₦431k	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	19,458	2,476	₦6.21bn	₦6.21bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	11,059	1,001	₦892m	₦890m	21%	4.9 yr
Under 30m2	8,915	875	₦175m	₦170m	5%	15.4 yr
30 50m2	5,792	537	₦181m	₦181m	11%	8.9 yr
250 1000m2	3,463	809	₦4.94bn	₦4.94bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	30	11	₦521m	₦521m	27%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	16,141	1,488	₦3.75bn	₦3.75bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	13,365	353	₦1.41bn	₦1.4bn	21%	5.1 yr
Dense Urban	12,446	2,327	₦2.87bn	₦2.87bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	4,336	740	₦2.78bn	₦2.78bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	2,429	801	₦2.11bn	₦2.11bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	15,814	943	₦793m	₦788m	19%	5.1 yr
Residential Small	9,547	723	₦650m	₦649m	23%	4.9 yr
Residential	9,161	1,192	₦3.76bn	₦3.76bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	6,639	479	₦87.7m	₦87.7m	7%	15.6 yr
Apartment	2,754	156	₦135m	₦134m	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial	1,228	543	₦3.01bn	₦3.01bn	35%	3.1 yr
Duplex	1,008	60	₦46.1m	₦46.1m	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	779	426	₦119m	₦119m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	663	592	₦2.17bn	₦2.17bn	45%	2.4 yr
Institutional	362	201	₦669m	₦669m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial Site	158	73	₦184m	₦184m	35%	3.1 yr
Educational Facility	131	92	₦289m	₦289m	61%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	48,705	5,709	₦12.9bn	₦12.9bn
Farmland	12	0	₦928k	₦928k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	46,143	4,185	₦6.11bn	₦6.1bn	23%	4.9 yr
SME High	1,925	1,155	₦5.21bn	₦5.21bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	649	369	₦1.59bn	₦1.59bn	47%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	19,496	1,571	₦3.42bn	₦3.41bn
3.0	13,093	2,204	₦5.88bn	₦5.87bn
0.0	6,504	444	₦76.8m	₦76.8m
2.0	6,219	676	₦605m	₦605m
1.0	2,177	266	₦143m	₦143m
5.0	1,033	461	₦2.02bn	₦2.02bn
6.0	195	87	₦778m	₦778m