Osun State

Rooftop solar in Olorunda, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Olorunda has 53,300 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.39 GWp of roof capacity. 16% run a generator, and together they spend ₦24.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

53,300

Usable roof area

6.17 km²

1.39 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦24.1bn/yr

18.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Olorunda

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦24.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦23.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.32tn

NPV₦189bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy28 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity112 MWp

Capex₦104bn

Year-one energy value₦69.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.28tn

NPV₦528bn

Median IRR67%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Olorunda's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 112 MWp
Capital cost: ₦104bn
Year 1 savings: ₦69.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦528bn
Median IRR: 67%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Olorunda pays back quickly

Of the 51,420 buildings in Olorunda with a modelled payback, 63.9% pay back inside five years and 15.8% inside three.

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How much of Olorunda's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Olorunda consume 51.6 GWh/yr but want 79.6 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Olorunda

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Olorunda actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 51,420 buildings with a modelled result out of 53,300 in Olorunda. 41,888 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,148 (16%)

Under 5 years32,872 (64%)

Under 7 years41,819 (81%)

Under 10 years46,369 (90%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%45,818 (86%)

Above 15%41,888 (79%)

Above 20%35,770 (67%)

Above 25%26,453 (50%)

CO₂ avoided

49 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

9.56 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

28 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

120k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Olorunda.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Olorunda

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	35,056	3,414	₦7.59bn	₦7.56bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	8,816	1,574	₦5.45bn	₦5.45bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	4,514	2,858	₦8.19bn	₦7.64bn	59%	1.9 yr
A	2,862	7	₦833m	₦833m	25%	4.4 yr
D	2,052	501	₦2.08bn	₦2.08bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	49,482	7,267	₦13.7bn	₦13.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	1,977	613	₦5.91bn	₦5.91bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,262	266	₦118m	₦118m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	267	112	₦3.92bn	₦3.88bn	41%	2.6 yr
Industrial	247	83	₦399m	₦396m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	26	4	₦14.1m	₦14.1m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	24	6	₦82.6m	₦81.9m	33%	3.1 yr
Worship	12	3	₦4.15m	₦4.15m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	1	0	₦18.6k	₦18.6k	27%	3.9 yr
Mall Retail	1	0	₦27.7k	₦27.7k	33%	3.4 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦44.2k	₦44.2k	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	22,275	3,440	₦8.92bn	₦8.81bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	10,011	1,621	₦306m	₦284m	9%	7.4 yr
50 100m2	8,155	1,245	₦838m	₦838m	21%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	7,601	1,159	₦9.02bn	₦8.67bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	5,153	823	₦364m	₦264m	17%	6.4 yr
Over 1000m2	105	66	₦4.69bn	₦4.68bn	55%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	39,440	4,135	₦11.7bn	₦11.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	7,487	2,054	₦8.44bn	₦8.07bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	4,046	537	₦2.14bn	₦1.97bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	1,802	1,485	₦1.74bn	₦1.71bn	59%	1.9 yr
Rural	478	129	₦163m	₦163m	25%	4.4 yr
(Unset)	47	14	₦1.49m	₦1.49m	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	21,641	2,360	₦1.93bn	₦1.93bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	7,797	2,189	₦10.3bn	₦9.72bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	5,233	1,174	₦723m	₦722m	23%	4.6 yr
Apartment	4,643	445	₦366m	₦366m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	4,519	0	₦162m	₦153m	21%	4.9 yr
Shed	3,994	973	₦177m	₦177m	19%	5.6 yr
Duplex	1,603	120	₦80.6m	₦80.6m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,261	266	₦118m	₦118m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	881	188	₦2.25bn	₦2.25bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	732	291	₦2.63bn	₦2.63bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	254	112	₦3.59bn	₦3.59bn	31%	3.4 yr
Unknown	129	38	₦458m	₦458m	31%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	53,300	8,354	₦24.1bn	₦23.6bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	51,212	7,685	₦14.9bn	₦14.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	1,653	486	₦4.96bn	₦4.95bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	435	183	₦4.26bn	₦4.23bn	39%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	27,996	2,940	₦5.1bn	₦5.07bn
3.0	14,643	3,423	₦14.7bn	₦14.2bn
2.0	4,426	610	₦587m	₦537m
0.0	4,009	975	₦181m	₦181m
1.0	1,135	181	₦88.4m	₦88.4m
5.0	810	177	₦1.98bn	₦1.98bn
6.0	281	48	₦1.48bn	₦1.47bn