Osun State

Rooftop solar in Ife East, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Ife East has 92,977 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.4 GWp of roof capacity. 11% run a generator, and together they spend ₦26.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

92,977

Usable roof area

10.7 km²

2.4 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦26.5bn/yr

18.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ife East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦26.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦22bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.23tn

NPV₦170bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy29.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity144 MWp

Capex₦144bn

Year-one energy value₦113bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.24tn

NPV₦871bn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ife East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 144 MWp
Capital cost: ₦144bn
Year 1 savings: ₦113bn/yr
NPV: ₦871bn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ife East pays back quickly

Of the 88,644 buildings in Ife East with a modelled payback, 59.2% pay back inside five years and 9.7% inside three.

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How much of Ife East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ife East consume 56.7 GWh/yr but want 86.6 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ife East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ife East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 88,644 buildings with a modelled result out of 92,977 in Ife East. 66,893 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,631 (10%)

Under 5 years52,448 (59%)

Under 7 years66,741 (75%)

Under 10 years76,494 (86%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%75,229 (81%)

Above 15%66,893 (72%)

Above 20%56,746 (61%)

Above 25%21,648 (23%)

CO₂ avoided

48.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.68 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

29.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

581k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ife East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ife East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	38,156	4,437	₦10.3bn	₦9.76bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	31,743	2,600	₦2.41bn	₦2.41bn	23%	4.6 yr
B	11,802	1,757	₦2.7bn	₦2.68bn	21%	4.9 yr
E	11,276	1,057	₦11.1bn	₦7.11bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	90,424	8,254	₦20.8bn	₦16.4bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	1,340	855	₦3.73bn	₦3.71bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	470	226	₦1.38bn	₦1.38bn	43%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	426	352	₦53m	₦53m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	166	103	₦282m	₦280m	47%	2.1 yr
Worship	54	20	₦34.4m	₦34.4m	33%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	50	19	₦36.4m	₦36.4m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	34	17	₦86.4m	₦86.4m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	11	5	₦9.74m	₦9.74m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	2	0	₦1.28m	₦1.28m	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	43,807	4,466	₦12.8bn	₦10.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	14,871	1,585	₦188m	₦186m	5%	13.9 yr
50 100m2	14,138	1,337	₦1.89bn	₦1.68bn	17%	6.1 yr
250 1000m2	10,495	1,450	₦10.2bn	₦8.08bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	9,578	987	₦371m	₦330m	11%	8.9 yr
Over 1000m2	88	26	₦1bn	₦985m	25%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	78,276	8,772	₦13.5bn	₦13.5bn	23%	4.4 yr
Urban	7,564	565	₦2.83bn	₦2.63bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	6,431	435	₦8.26bn	₦4.38bn	23%	4.9 yr
Rural	706	79	₦1.89bn	₦1.51bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	42,577	4,004	₦2.71bn	₦2.71bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	11,543	265	₦228m	₦228m	17%	6.1 yr
Residential	10,518	1,467	₦14.3bn	₦10.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	9,618	778	₦614m	₦614m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	7,471	840	₦2.63bn	₦2.31bn	23%	4.4 yr
Shed	5,447	601	₦137m	₦137m	17%	6.1 yr
Duplex	3,222	298	₦216m	₦216m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	779	558	₦2.33bn	₦2.32bn	37%	2.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	427	352	₦53.3m	₦53.3m	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	329	180	₦878m	₦878m	33%	3.4 yr
Unknown	173	79	₦356m	₦356m	31%	3.6 yr
Educational Facility	146	78	₦373m	₦373m	45%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	92,977	9,851	₦26.5bn	₦22bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	91,433	8,890	₦22bn	₦17.5bn	23%	4.4 yr
SME High	922	638	₦2.84bn	₦2.82bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	622	323	₦1.64bn	₦1.64bn	43%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	58,391	5,425	₦6.62bn	₦6.62bn
3.0	20,467	2,811	₦16.4bn	₦12.2bn
2.0	6,757	572	₦1.3bn	₦1.09bn
0.0	4,446	500	₦79.6m	₦79.6m
1.0	2,666	375	₦328m	₦283m
5.0	227	157	₦1.47bn	₦1.45bn
6.0	23	11	₦241m	₦241m