Osun State

Rooftop solar in Boripe, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Boripe has 46,171 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.18 GWp of roof capacity. 36% run a generator, and together they spend ₦29.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

46,171

Usable roof area

5.26 km²

1.18 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦29.6bn/yr

25 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Boripe

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦29.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦29.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.56tn

NPV₦233bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy18.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity86.4 MWp

Capex₦90.3bn

Year-one energy value₦70.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.34tn

NPV₦551bn

Median IRR83%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Boripe's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 86.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦90.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦70.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦551bn
Median IRR: 83%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Boripe pays back quickly

Of the 45,633 buildings in Boripe with a modelled payback, 73.8% pay back inside five years and 34.5% inside three.

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How much of Boripe's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Boripe consume 45.7 GWh/yr but want 64.4 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Boripe

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Boripe actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 45,633 buildings with a modelled result out of 46,171 in Boripe. 40,215 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years15,757 (35%)

Under 5 years33,695 (74%)

Under 7 years40,170 (88%)

Under 10 years43,115 (94%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%42,760 (93%)

Above 15%40,215 (87%)

Above 20%35,627 (77%)

Above 25%30,708 (67%)

CO₂ avoided

53 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

15.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

18.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

145k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Boripe.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Boripe

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	22,519	8,303	₦12.7bn	₦12.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	13,417	4,254	₦6.84bn	₦6.82bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	9,962	4,079	₦10.1bn	₦10.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	273	2	₦6.09m	₦6.09m	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	45,418	16,057	₦24.6bn	₦24.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Anchor	357	275	₦3.09bn	₦3.04bn	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	259	196	₦1.45bn	₦1.45bn	43%	2.6 yr
Industrial	85	67	₦345m	₦342m	55%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	26	21	₦46.8m	₦46.8m	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	18	14	₦11.3m	₦11.3m	43%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	5	5	₦17.9m	₦17.9m	47%	2.1 yr
Mall Retail	2	2	₦14.4m	₦14.4m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1	1	₦79.7k	₦79.7k	59%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	21,641	7,547	₦14.1bn	₦14bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	7,562	2,540	₦1.16bn	₦1.16bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	7,560	2,823	₦327m	₦322m	17%	5.9 yr
250 1000m2	4,954	2,105	₦11.5bn	₦11.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	4,346	1,594	₦366m	₦366m	21%	5.1 yr
Over 1000m2	108	29	₦2.14bn	₦2.14bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	28,176	10,292	₦12.7bn	₦12.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	11,714	4,658	₦10.2bn	₦10.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	3,688	1,066	₦4.34bn	₦4.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	1,943	561	₦2.21bn	₦2.19bn	25%	4.4 yr
(Unset)	650	61	₦173m	₦173m	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	20,249	6,238	₦3.63bn	₦3.63bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	8,392	3,945	₦17.8bn	₦17.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	4,425	765	₦703m	₦703m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	4,337	2,362	₦1.5bn	₦1.5bn	59%	1.9 yr
Shed	3,398	1,380	₦227m	₦227m	21%	5.1 yr
Apartment	2,619	867	₦530m	₦530m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	1,959	491	₦303m	₦303m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	259	181	₦2.52bn	₦2.52bn	41%	2.6 yr
School	94	77	₦267m	₦267m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	88	77	₦410m	₦410m	63%	1.6 yr
Clinic	64	50	₦693m	₦657m	39%	2.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	63	50	₦618m	₦601m	39%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	46,171	16,638	₦29.6bn	₦29.5bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	45,696	16,269	₦26.1bn	₦26.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	441	341	₦3.43bn	₦3.38bn	53%	2.1 yr
SME High	34	28	₦73.4m	₦73.4m	51%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	24,582	7,418	₦7.26bn	₦7.22bn
3.0	14,375	6,370	₦21.5bn	₦21.5bn
2.0	3,326	1,264	₦565m	₦563m
0.0	3,287	1,331	₦209m	₦209m
1.0	597	252	₦49.4m	₦49.4m
5.0	4	3	₦21.8m	₦21.8m