Osun State

Rooftop solar in Egbedore, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Egbedore has 74,800 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.98 GWp of roof capacity. 15% run a generator, and together they spend ₦32.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

74,800

Usable roof area

8.82 km²

1.98 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦32.5bn/yr

27.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Egbedore

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦32.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦31.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.78tn

NPV₦255bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy40 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity166 MWp

Capex₦152bn

Year-one energy value₦102bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.77tn

NPV₦769bn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Egbedore's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 166 MWp
Capital cost: ₦152bn
Year 1 savings: ₦102bn/yr
NPV: ₦769bn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Egbedore pays back quickly

Of the 70,910 buildings in Egbedore with a modelled payback, 63.3% pay back inside five years and 15.1% inside three.

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How much of Egbedore's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Egbedore consume 72.1 GWh/yr but want 112 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Egbedore

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Egbedore actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 70,910 buildings with a modelled result out of 74,800 in Egbedore. 55,426 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,732 (15%)

Under 5 years44,906 (63%)

Under 7 years55,347 (78%)

Under 10 years62,048 (88%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%61,160 (82%)

Above 15%55,426 (74%)

Above 20%48,312 (65%)

Above 25%34,993 (47%)

CO₂ avoided

65.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

12 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

40 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

149k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Egbedore.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Egbedore

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	29,723	2,209	₦2.9bn	₦2.9bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	18,514	3,881	₦8.48bn	₦8.39bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	10,086	183	₦3.39bn	₦3.39bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	8,450	2,422	₦9.72bn	₦9.57bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	8,027	2,377	₦8bn	₦7.46bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	68,560	9,432	₦14.7bn	₦14bn	23%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	3,214	849	₦11bn	₦10.9bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,852	264	₦264m	₦264m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	510	256	₦5.44bn	₦5.41bn	43%	2.4 yr
Industrial	501	215	₦889m	₦886m	37%	2.9 yr
Worship	66	27	₦34.6m	₦34.6m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	48	19	₦29.7m	₦29.7m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	44	10	₦208m	₦208m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	3	0	₦415k	₦415k	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦461k	₦461k	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	29,675	4,672	₦11.4bn	₦10.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	14,590	1,793	₦366m	₦364m	7%	7.4 yr
250 1000m2	11,478	1,778	₦13.3bn	₦13bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	11,269	1,714	₦1.2bn	₦1.19bn	19%	5.4 yr
30 50m2	7,612	1,040	₦358m	₦358m	15%	6.9 yr
Over 1000m2	176	75	₦5.93bn	₦5.93bn	35%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	59,849	7,259	₦14.4bn	₦14.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	6,141	1,621	₦9.23bn	₦8.76bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	5,570	710	₦3.14bn	₦3bn	19%	5.6 yr
Rural	1,571	580	₦1.97bn	₦1.87bn	23%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	1,425	896	₦3.74bn	₦3.69bn	69%	1.6 yr
(Unset)	244	6	₦69m	₦69m	21%	5.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	30,493	2,145	₦1.76bn	₦1.76bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	11,601	3,341	₦11.1bn	₦10.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	7,574	1,764	₦787m	₦782m	21%	4.9 yr
Shed	6,180	1,235	₦190m	₦190m	17%	6.4 yr
Residential Informal	5,641	460	₦412m	₦412m	23%	4.6 yr
Apartment	4,859	292	₦247m	₦247m	23%	4.6 yr
Duplex	2,107	180	₦132m	₦132m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,853	264	₦264m	₦264m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,481	321	₦5.33bn	₦5.28bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	1,151	278	₦4.52bn	₦4.52bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	511	249	₦4.59bn	₦4.59bn	31%	3.4 yr
Industrial Site	271	132	₦547m	₦547m	37%	2.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	74,795	11,072	₦32.5bn	₦31.7bn
Farmland	5	0	₦8.01k	₦8.01k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	71,135	9,985	₦16.2bn	₦15.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	2,706	626	₦10bn	₦9.98bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	959	461	₦6.22bn	₦6.19bn	41%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	38,770	3,133	₦9.16bn	₦9.15bn
3.0	21,002	5,289	₦18.1bn	₦17.4bn
0.0	6,159	1,222	₦191m	₦191m
2.0	5,871	971	₦598m	₦592m
1.0	1,571	433	₦218m	₦218m
5.0	1,076	22	₦2.84bn	₦2.79bn
6.0	351	2	₦1.38bn	₦1.38bn