Osun State

Rooftop solar in Ife Central, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Ife Central has 62,315 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.76 GWp of roof capacity. 16% run a generator, and together they spend ₦22.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

62,315

Usable roof area

7.83 km²

1.76 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦22.7bn/yr

19.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ife Central

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦22.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦22.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.29tn

NPV₦180bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy33.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity123 MWp

Capex₦113bn

Year-one energy value₦72.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.39tn

NPV₦543bn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ife Central's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 123 MWp
Capital cost: ₦113bn
Year 1 savings: ₦72.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦543bn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ife Central pays back quickly

Of the 58,331 buildings in Ife Central with a modelled payback, 56.0% pay back inside five years and 15.1% inside three.

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How much of Ife Central's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ife Central consume 56.6 GWh/yr but want 89.8 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ife Central

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ife Central actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 58,331 buildings with a modelled result out of 62,315 in Ife Central. 43,315 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,784 (15%)

Under 5 years32,687 (56%)

Under 7 years43,230 (74%)

Under 10 years50,022 (86%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%49,207 (79%)

Above 15%43,315 (70%)

Above 20%35,923 (58%)

Above 25%16,732 (27%)

CO₂ avoided

48.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

7.35 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

33.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

102k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ife Central.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ife Central

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	32,386	5,609	₦14.3bn	₦14.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	19,129	2,130	₦6.13bn	₦6bn	19%	5.1 yr
D	9,544	1,827	₦1.71bn	₦1.71bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	1,256	113	₦555m	₦519m	21%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	59,671	7,986	₦7.2bn	₦7.17bn	21%	4.9 yr
Commercial General	1,165	758	₦4.96bn	₦4.96bn	41%	2.6 yr
Anchor	701	419	₦9.67bn	₦9.53bn	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	460	371	₦83.1m	₦83.1m	45%	2.4 yr
Industrial	118	63	₦249m	₦248m	37%	2.9 yr
Worship	93	27	₦96.2m	₦96.2m	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	59	38	₦370m	₦368m	43%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	35	13	₦19.3m	₦19.3m	33%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	7	1	₦29.8m	₦29.8m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	4	2	₦3.7m	₦3.7m	33%	2.9 yr
Automotive	2	1	₦375k	₦375k	29%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	24,262	3,500	₦4.54bn	₦4.54bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	10,851	1,640	₦175m	₦174m	5%	8.9 yr
250 1000m2	10,385	2,084	₦9.72bn	₦9.71bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	9,980	1,357	₦548m	₦512m	15%	6.9 yr
30 50m2	6,653	992	₦197m	₦197m	11%	8.4 yr
Over 1000m2	184	106	₦7.5bn	₦7.37bn	41%	2.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	53,414	8,308	₦12.7bn	₦12.5bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	3,051	379	₦3.1bn	₦3.1bn	21%	5.1 yr
Urban	2,845	409	₦1.77bn	₦1.77bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	2,152	477	₦4.64bn	₦4.64bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	853	106	₦484m	₦448m	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	24,133	3,263	₦1.96bn	₦1.96bn	23%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	13,397	138	₦345m	₦345m	15%	6.6 yr
Residential	8,016	2,101	₦4.12bn	₦4.12bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	5,741	1,283	₦377m	₦341m	21%	5.4 yr
Shed	4,399	720	₦137m	₦137m	19%	5.6 yr
Apartment	2,376	298	₦176m	₦176m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	1,576	180	₦81.7m	₦81.7m	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	667	530	₦3.07bn	₦3.07bn	47%	2.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	459	372	₦86.2m	₦86.2m	45%	2.4 yr
Institutional	311	151	₦5.18bn	₦5.05bn	31%	3.6 yr
Compound University	190	176	₦2.89bn	₦2.89bn	43%	2.6 yr
School	144	73	₦272m	₦272m	43%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	62,311	9,679	₦22.7bn	₦22.5bn
Farmland	4	0	₦244k	₦244k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	60,694	8,610	₦9.32bn	₦9.28bn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	812	593	₦3.49bn	₦3.48bn	47%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	809	476	₦9.87bn	₦9.73bn	41%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	33,467	4,214	₦10.8bn	₦10.8bn
3.0	17,766	3,516	₦9.39bn	₦9.26bn
2.0	5,196	686	₦263m	₦227m
0.0	3,650	575	₦95.7m	₦95.7m
1.0	1,985	578	₦136m	₦136m
5.0	221	99	₦1.66bn	₦1.66bn
6.0	30	11	₦316m	₦316m