Osun State

Rooftop solar in Orolu, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Orolu has 17,468 buildings with a viable rooftop and 454 MWp of roof capacity. 34% run a generator, and together they spend ₦10.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

17,468

Usable roof area

2.02 km²

454 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦10.3bn/yr

8.56 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Orolu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦10.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦10.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦549bn

NPV₦79.6bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy8.06 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity36.5 MWp

Capex₦37.6bn

Year-one energy value₦28.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.35tn

NPV₦221bn

Median IRR69%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Orolu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 36.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦37.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦28.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦221bn
Median IRR: 69%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Orolu pays back quickly

Of the 17,270 buildings in Orolu with a modelled payback, 79.2% pay back inside five years and 33.9% inside three.

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How much of Orolu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Orolu consume 18.2 GWh/yr but want 26.2 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Orolu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Orolu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 17,270 buildings with a modelled result out of 17,468 in Orolu. 15,563 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,846 (34%)

Under 5 years13,676 (79%)

Under 7 years15,550 (90%)

Under 10 years16,421 (95%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%16,299 (93%)

Above 15%15,563 (89%)

Above 20%14,285 (82%)

Above 25%12,466 (71%)

CO₂ avoided

19 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.85 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

8.06 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

67.8k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Orolu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Orolu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	9,131	3,892	₦5.52bn	₦5.52bn	25%	4.1 yr
C	7,660	1,966	₦3.78bn	₦3.66bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	677	112	₦978m	₦978m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	17,005	5,608	₦7.79bn	₦7.68bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	225	187	₦1.65bn	₦1.64bn	49%	2.1 yr
Anchor	111	82	₦689m	₦681m	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	63	63	₦39.8m	₦39.8m	47%	2.4 yr
Industrial	45	21	₦83.4m	₦82.7m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	11	5	₦11.6m	₦11.6m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	5	4	₦24.8m	₦24.8m	39%	2.6 yr
Worship	2	0	₦437k	₦437k	33%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	1	0	₦2.24m	₦2.24m	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	7,694	2,590	₦4.94bn	₦4.86bn	25%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	3,153	1,138	₦510m	₦510m	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	2,846	837	₦104m	₦104m	17%	6.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,164	900	₦4.4bn	₦4.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	1,595	502	₦162m	₦126m	21%	5.1 yr
Over 1000m2	16	3	₦162m	₦162m	27%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	14,315	5,516	₦8.32bn	₦8.3bn	25%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	1,882	399	₦1.79bn	₦1.67bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	980	6	₦68.8m	₦68.8m	25%	4.4 yr
(Unset)	226	6	₦40.8m	₦40.8m	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	65	43	₦68.8m	₦68.8m	73%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	6,243	3,080	₦2.72bn	₦2.69bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	3,340	3	₦118m	₦118m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	3,285	1,152	₦4.06bn	₦4.06bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	1,955	649	₦337m	₦337m	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	1,114	263	₦44.2m	₦44.2m	17%	6.1 yr
Apartment	769	298	₦257m	₦257m	25%	4.1 yr
Duplex	293	161	₦249m	₦171m	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	124	124	₦1.39bn	₦1.38bn	49%	2.1 yr
Institutional	87	57	₦247m	₦247m	37%	2.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	63	63	₦39.8m	₦39.8m	47%	2.4 yr
Unknown	31	16	₦59.3m	₦59.3m	33%	3.1 yr
Clinic	24	15	₦172m	₦172m	33%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	17,468	5,970	₦10.3bn	₦10.2bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	17,175	5,737	₦8.11bn	₦7.99bn	25%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	156	103	₦773m	₦764m	45%	2.4 yr
SME High	137	130	₦1.41bn	₦1.4bn	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	8,505	3,344	₦4.09bn	₦3.97bn
3.0	5,791	1,877	₦4.71bn	₦4.71bn
2.0	1,761	381	₦288m	₦288m
0.0	1,044	257	₦42.1m	₦42.1m
1.0	302	50	₦21m	₦21m
5.0	61	58	₦998m	₦998m
6.0	4	3	₦133m	₦124m