Osun State

Rooftop solar in Ola Oluwa, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Ola Oluwa has 13,214 buildings with a viable rooftop and 243 MWp of roof capacity. 26% run a generator, and together they spend ₦9.66bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

13,214

Usable roof area

1.08 km²

243 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦9.66bn/yr

8.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ola Oluwa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦9.66bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦9.32bn

Lifetime cash saved₦485bn

NPV₦75.3bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy5.78 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity36.5 MWp

Capex₦38.3bn

Year-one energy value₦35.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.66tn

NPV₦282bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ola Oluwa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 36.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦38.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦35.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦282bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ola Oluwa pays back quickly

Of the 13,047 buildings in Ola Oluwa with a modelled payback, 62.0% pay back inside five years and 26.0% inside three.

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How much of Ola Oluwa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ola Oluwa consume 12.8 GWh/yr but want 18.6 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ola Oluwa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ola Oluwa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 13,047 buildings with a modelled result out of 13,214 in Ola Oluwa. 9,345 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,396 (26%)

Under 5 years8,090 (62%)

Under 7 years9,340 (72%)

Under 10 years10,314 (79%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%10,057 (76%)

Above 15%9,345 (71%)

Above 20%8,497 (64%)

Above 25%6,648 (50%)

CO₂ avoided

16.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.12 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

5.78 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

97.4k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ola Oluwa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ola Oluwa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	7,545	2,182	₦7.15bn	₦6.92bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	5,593	1,218	₦2.5bn	₦2.39bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	76	1	₦6.26m	₦6.26m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	12,788	3,019	₦7.88bn	₦7.55bn	25%	4.4 yr
Anchor	180	172	₦1.11bn	₦1.1bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	121	104	₦342m	₦342m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	115	96	₦310m	₦309m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	5	5	₦1.04m	₦1.04m	63%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	5	5	₦9.51m	₦9.51m	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	4,875	1,459	₦5.21bn	₦5.08bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	3,407	683	₦131m	₦129m	7%	14.6 yr
50 100m2	2,466	570	₦685m	₦648m	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	1,783	414	₦159m	₦159m	11%	8.4 yr
250 1000m2	676	270	₦3.12bn	₦2.96bn	25%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	7	5	₦344m	₦344m	75%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	4,457	599	₦3.44bn	₦3.16bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	3,848	764	₦1.87bn	₦1.87bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	3,351	1,783	₦3.96bn	₦3.9bn	69%	1.6 yr
Dense Urban	1,546	255	₦393m	₦392m	25%	4.4 yr
Urban Centre	12	0	₦133k	₦133k	17%	6.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	4,440	1,336	₦6.79bn	₦6.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	3,810	1,018	₦959m	₦922m	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	3,733	664	₦97m	₦97m	7%	14.1 yr
Residential Formal	652	0	₦26.5m	₦26.5m	21%	5.1 yr
Institutional	147	128	₦407m	₦407m	57%	1.9 yr
Apartment	120	0	₦5.24m	₦5.24m	25%	4.4 yr
Industrial Site	52	40	₦137m	₦136m	69%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	45	44	₦153m	₦153m	83%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	44	41	₦486m	₦485m	53%	2.1 yr
Clinic	37	35	₦310m	₦302m	53%	2.1 yr
School	34	33	₦75.6m	₦75.6m	81%	1.4 yr
Industrial	33	30	₦128m	₦128m	69%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	13,171	3,401	₦9.66bn	₦9.31bn
Industrial	43	0	₦1.06m	₦1.06m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	12,916	3,130	₦8.23bn	₦7.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	292	265	₦1.41bn	₦1.4bn	65%	1.6 yr
SME High	6	6	₦12.3m	₦12.3m	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	6,348	2,068	₦8.41bn	₦8.13bn
0.0	3,734	662	₦96.4m	₦96.4m
2.0	1,974	538	₦953m	₦888m
4.0	761	17	₦140m	₦140m
1.0	397	116	₦63.6m	₦62.2m