Osun State

Rooftop solar in Odo Otin, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Odo Otin has 33,306 buildings with a viable rooftop and 888 MWp of roof capacity. 51% run a generator, and together they spend ₦38.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

33,306

Usable roof area

3.95 km²

888 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦38.8bn/yr

37.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

2.6 yr

Median IRR 37% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Odo Otin

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦38.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦38.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2tn

NPV₦309bn

Median IRR37%

Median payback2.6 yr

Unlocked energy19.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity91.7 MWp

Capex₦91.6bn

Year-one energy value₦77.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.67tn

NPV₦614bn

Median IRR87%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Odo Otin's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 91.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦91.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦77.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦614bn
Median IRR: 87%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Odo Otin pays back quickly

Of the 32,945 buildings in Odo Otin with a modelled payback, 81.0% pay back inside five years and 50.6% inside three.

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How much of Odo Otin's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Odo Otin consume 54.6 GWh/yr but want 73.9 GWh/yr. The 26% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Odo Otin

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Odo Otin actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 32,945 buildings with a modelled result out of 33,306 in Odo Otin. 29,313 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years16,671 (51%)

Under 5 years26,682 (81%)

Under 7 years29,297 (89%)

Under 10 years30,868 (94%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%30,612 (92%)

Above 15%29,313 (88%)

Above 20%27,581 (83%)

Above 25%25,172 (76%)

CO₂ avoided

64.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

20.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

19.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

128k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Odo Otin.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Odo Otin

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	15,903	8,222	₦17.9bn	₦17.8bn	41%	2.6 yr
E	15,153	7,485	₦17.8bn	₦17.5bn	27%	3.1 yr
C	2,250	1,118	₦3.14bn	₦3.13bn	33%	2.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	31,690	15,315	₦28bn	₦27.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	801	765	₦6.07bn	₦6.07bn	61%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	339	318	₦124m	₦124m	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	305	275	₦3.89bn	₦3.83bn	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	135	119	₦532m	₦528m	63%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	24	24	₦57.3m	₦57.3m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	8	6	₦6.89m	₦6.89m	43%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	4	3	₦68.7m	₦63.6m	59%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	13,821	7,154	₦18.2bn	₦17.9bn	45%	2.4 yr
Under 30m2	6,401	2,986	₦447m	₦436m	21%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	5,029	2,484	₦1.44bn	₦1.44bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	4,772	2,632	₦15.9bn	₦15.9bn	49%	2.1 yr
30 50m2	3,245	1,545	₦446m	₦445m	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	38	24	₦2.36bn	₦2.34bn	55%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	18,617	8,672	₦16bn	₦16bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	11,263	7,052	₦19.4bn	₦19.4bn	61%	1.9 yr
Unclassified	2,975	904	₦3.1bn	₦2.86bn	25%	4.1 yr
Rural	440	197	₦260m	₦260m	25%	2.4 yr
(Unset)	11	0	₦1.52m	₦1.52m	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	11,008	3,888	₦3.88bn	₦3.87bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	8,764	5,281	₦20.7bn	₦20.5bn	63%	1.6 yr
Residential Small	5,370	3,019	₦1.68bn	₦1.68bn	61%	1.9 yr
Shed	3,740	1,986	₦337m	₦337m	57%	1.9 yr
Residential Informal	1,169	559	₦920m	₦920m	27%	4.1 yr
Apartment	1,110	424	₦392m	₦392m	27%	4.1 yr
Duplex	510	155	₦136m	₦136m	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial	448	446	₦4.41bn	₦4.41bn	69%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	339	318	₦124m	₦124m	57%	1.9 yr
Institutional	237	210	₦2.35bn	₦2.34bn	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	132	120	₦680m	₦680m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial Site	91	79	₦339m	₦337m	65%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	33,306	16,825	₦38.8bn	₦38.5bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	32,261	15,840	₦29.1bn	₦28.9bn	27%	4.1 yr
SME High	607	593	₦5.22bn	₦5.21bn	61%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	438	392	₦4.42bn	₦4.36bn	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	13,651	8,100	₦26.8bn	₦26.6bn
4.0	12,302	4,828	₦10bn	₦9.99bn
0.0	3,595	1,832	₦308m	₦308m
2.0	2,773	1,405	₦825m	₦819m
1.0	908	583	₦185m	₦185m
5.0	75	75	₦565m	₦560m
6.0	2	2	₦38.1m	₦38.1m