Osun State

Rooftop solar in Obokun, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Obokun has 34,827 buildings with a viable rooftop and 785 MWp of roof capacity. 27% run a generator, and together they spend ₦16.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

34,827

Usable roof area

3.49 km²

785 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦16.6bn/yr

15.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Obokun

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦16.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦16.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦868bn

NPV₦133bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy11.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity65.7 MWp

Capex₦67.8bn

Year-one energy value₦60bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.84tn

NPV₦479bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Obokun's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 65.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦67.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦60bn/yr
NPV: ₦479bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Obokun pays back quickly

Of the 33,590 buildings in Obokun with a modelled payback, 60.7% pay back inside five years and 27.6% inside three.

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How much of Obokun's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Obokun consume 23.6 GWh/yr but want 35.1 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Obokun

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Obokun actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 33,590 buildings with a modelled result out of 34,827 in Obokun. 25,419 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,261 (28%)

Under 5 years20,385 (61%)

Under 7 years25,385 (76%)

Under 10 years28,636 (85%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%28,073 (81%)

Above 15%25,419 (73%)

Above 20%21,785 (63%)

Above 25%17,772 (51%)

CO₂ avoided

29.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.71 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

11.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

160k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Obokun.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Obokun

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	25,003	7,718	₦14bn	₦13.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	7,467	1,351	₦2bn	₦2bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	2,357	213	₦611m	₦611m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	33,640	8,247	₦12.7bn	₦12.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	573	517	₦1.52bn	₦1.52bn	63%	1.6 yr
Anchor	317	278	₦2.1bn	₦2.1bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	156	155	₦30.1m	₦30.1m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	117	63	₦195m	₦193m	49%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	12	11	₦14.7m	₦14.7m	53%	1.9 yr
Worship	8	7	₦14.4m	₦14.4m	55%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	2	2	₦11.2m	₦11.2m	55%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦4.44m	₦4.44m	67%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦180k	₦180k	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	13,572	3,766	₦6.44bn	₦6.34bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	7,071	1,752	₦240m	₦238m	7%	12.9 yr
50 100m2	6,841	1,451	₦716m	₦716m	21%	4.9 yr
30 50m2	4,017	927	₦210m	₦210m	13%	8.1 yr
250 1000m2	3,285	1,363	₦7.6bn	₦7.55bn	25%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	41	23	₦1.4bn	₦1.4bn	61%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	17,736	6,196	₦8.38bn	₦8.37bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	6,203	603	₦2.99bn	₦2.85bn	23%	4.4 yr
Urban	5,815	1,108	₦2.99bn	₦2.99bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	5,011	1,375	₦2.24bn	₦2.24bn	23%	4.4 yr
Urban Centre	60	0	₦1.46m	₦1.46m	21%	5.1 yr
(Unset)	2	0	₦357k	₦357k	31%	2.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	10,248	2,949	₦10.1bn	₦9.94bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	8,699	1,892	₦784m	₦784m	21%	4.9 yr
Residential Formal	6,814	1,507	₦983m	₦983m	21%	4.9 yr
Shed	5,389	1,270	₦227m	₦227m	9%	9.9 yr
Residential Informal	1,331	319	₦402m	₦402m	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	718	215	₦149m	₦149m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	396	93	₦70.2m	₦70.2m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial	302	302	₦652m	₦652m	65%	1.6 yr
Institutional	256	200	₦1.32bn	₦1.32bn	53%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	157	156	₦30.3m	₦30.3m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial Site	100	57	₦185m	₦183m	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	97	88	₦340m	₦340m	79%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	34,827	9,282	₦16.6bn	₦16.5bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	34,081	8,625	₦13.6bn	₦13.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	428	340	₦2.3bn	₦2.29bn	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	318	317	₦677m	₦677m	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	15,981	4,875	₦13.4bn	₦13.3bn
4.0	7,704	1,971	₦2.35bn	₦2.34bn
0.0	5,395	1,253	₦217m	₦217m
2.0	4,483	878	₦479m	₦477m
1.0	1,263	304	₦97.4m	₦97.2m
5.0	1	1	₦36.3m	₦36.3m