Osun State

Rooftop solar in Irepodun, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Irepodun has 29,182 buildings with a viable rooftop and 940 MWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦9.14bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

29,182

Usable roof area

4.17 km²

940 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦9.14bn/yr

6.41 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Irepodun

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦9.14bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦8.56bn

Lifetime cash saved₦480bn

NPV₦68bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy11.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity57.1 MWp

Capex₦56.5bn

Year-one energy value₦39.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.86tn

NPV₦302bn

Median IRR69%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Irepodun's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 57.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦56.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦39.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦302bn
Median IRR: 69%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Irepodun pays back quickly

Of the 28,759 buildings in Irepodun with a modelled payback, 59.2% pay back inside five years and 7.5% inside three.

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How much of Irepodun's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Irepodun consume 19.4 GWh/yr but want 30.9 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Irepodun

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Irepodun actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 28,759 buildings with a modelled result out of 29,182 in Irepodun. 23,101 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,165 (8%)

Under 5 years17,016 (59%)

Under 7 years23,075 (80%)

Under 10 years26,399 (92%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%26,023 (89%)

Above 15%23,101 (79%)

Above 20%18,847 (65%)

Above 25%13,930 (48%)

CO₂ avoided

18.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.52 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

11.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

89k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Irepodun.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Irepodun

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	15,943	909	₦2.99bn	₦2.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	10,887	354	₦1.43bn	₦1.42bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	2,352	981	₦4.73bn	₦4.43bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	28,273	1,960	₦6.55bn	₦5.97bn	23%	4.6 yr
Anchor	429	110	₦1.62bn	₦1.62bn	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial General	294	100	₦668m	₦668m	31%	3.4 yr
Industrial	159	67	₦254m	₦253m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	10	3	₦11m	₦11m	35%	3.1 yr
Worship	7	1	₦1.98m	₦1.98m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	5	0	₦19.4m	₦19.4m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	5	3	₦15.2m	₦15.2m	51%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	11,534	888	₦3.68bn	₦3.52bn	25%	4.4 yr
250 1000m2	5,993	402	₦3.75bn	₦3.34bn	25%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	4,589	382	₦495m	₦478m	21%	5.4 yr
Under 30m2	3,784	343	₦80.1m	₦79.2m	13%	8.1 yr
30 50m2	2,591	207	₦92.6m	₦92.6m	17%	6.1 yr
Over 1000m2	691	22	₦1.05bn	₦1.05bn	27%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	17,098	1,040	₦2.65bn	₦2.65bn	25%	4.4 yr
(Unset)	9,660	426	₦1.5bn	₦1.5bn	19%	5.4 yr
Urban	1,271	494	₦3.28bn	₦3.01bn	25%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	1,153	284	₦1.71bn	₦1.4bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	8,242	258	₦490m	₦490m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	6,672	246	₦190m	₦190m	21%	4.9 yr
Residential	5,934	703	₦5.16bn	₦4.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	3,217	473	₦584m	₦561m	19%	5.6 yr
Shed	2,012	233	₦38.3m	₦38.3m	17%	6.1 yr
Apartment	952	26	₦56.3m	₦56.3m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Large	715	10	₦4.72m	₦4.72m	13%	7.6 yr
Duplex	491	9	₦29.4m	₦29.4m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	447	95	₦1.28bn	₦1.28bn	31%	3.4 yr
School	97	24	₦88.8m	₦88.8m	43%	2.4 yr
Industrial Site	57	37	₦115m	₦114m	45%	2.4 yr
Clinic	55	19	₦128m	₦128m	29%	3.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	29,182	2,244	₦9.14bn	₦8.56bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	28,568	2,056	₦7.18bn	₦6.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	588	177	₦1.87bn	₦1.87bn	35%	2.9 yr
SME High	26	11	₦84.4m	₦84.4m	35%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	14,109	414	₦2.21bn	₦2.21bn
3.0	8,775	1,159	₦6.47bn	₦5.88bn
2.0	3,735	371	₦313m	₦313m
0.0	1,416	224	₦32.8m	₦32.8m
1.0	1,115	73	₦38.6m	₦38.6m
5.0	20	2	₦22.7m	₦22.7m
6.0	12	1	₦60.2m	₦60.2m