Osun State

Rooftop solar in Ilesha East, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Ilesha East has 33,195 buildings with a viable rooftop and 851 MWp of roof capacity. 38% run a generator, and together they spend ₦29.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

33,195

Usable roof area

3.78 km²

851 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦29.8bn/yr

28.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ilesha East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦29.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦29.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.64tn

NPV₦238bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy35 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity135 MWp

Capex₦121bn

Year-one energy value₦83.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.9tn

NPV₦633bn

Median IRR75%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ilesha East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 135 MWp
Capital cost: ₦121bn
Year 1 savings: ₦83.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦633bn
Median IRR: 75%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ilesha East pays back quickly

Of the 33,057 buildings in Ilesha East with a modelled payback, 78.5% pay back inside five years and 37.0% inside three.

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How much of Ilesha East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ilesha East consume 66 GWh/yr but want 101 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ilesha East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ilesha East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 33,057 buildings with a modelled result out of 33,195 in Ilesha East. 29,621 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years12,218 (37%)

Under 5 years25,939 (78%)

Under 7 years29,591 (90%)

Under 10 years31,447 (95%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%31,212 (94%)

Above 15%29,621 (89%)

Above 20%27,123 (82%)

Above 25%21,986 (66%)

CO₂ avoided

58.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

11 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

35 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

101k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ilesha East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ilesha East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	13,047	6,988	₦17.2bn	₦17bn	41%	2.6 yr
C	9,740	3,658	₦7.23bn	₦7.23bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	6,416	1,232	₦3.6bn	₦3.59bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	3,992	745	₦1.84bn	₦1.84bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	28,327	8,747	₦10.2bn	₦9.98bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	2,988	2,376	₦15.4bn	₦15.4bn	47%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,497	1,234	₦388m	₦388m	47%	2.4 yr
Anchor	235	172	₦3.51bn	₦3.51bn	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial	101	63	₦251m	₦250m	45%	2.4 yr
Filling Station	20	12	₦17m	₦17m	35%	2.9 yr
Worship	18	11	₦10.3m	₦10.3m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	9	8	₦72.8m	₦71.5m	43%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	13,040	4,937	₦11.4bn	₦11.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	7,042	2,575	₦460m	₦370m	19%	5.6 yr
50 100m2	4,872	1,635	₦1.08bn	₦1.01bn	25%	4.4 yr
250 1000m2	4,478	2,091	₦12.3bn	₦12.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	3,709	1,356	₦360m	₦352m	23%	4.9 yr
Over 1000m2	54	29	₦4.22bn	₦4.22bn	37%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	29,214	12,012	₦27bn	₦26.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	2,047	333	₦1.78bn	₦1.77bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	1,831	275	₦1.08bn	₦984m	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	103	3	₦5.55m	₦5.55m	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	9,299	3,309	₦2.97bn	₦2.81bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	8,355	2,336	₦2.97bn	₦2.96bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	3,530	966	₦3.22bn	₦3.22bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	2,747	882	₦136m	₦136m	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Small	2,462	511	₦256m	₦253m	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial	2,280	1,747	₦11.7bn	₦11.7bn	47%	2.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,497	1,234	₦388m	₦388m	47%	2.4 yr
Apartment	1,283	537	₦434m	₦434m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	611	202	₦169m	₦169m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	466	453	₦3.03bn	₦3.03bn	49%	2.1 yr
Institutional	200	138	₦3.31bn	₦3.31bn	39%	2.6 yr
Industrial Site	80	52	₦233m	₦232m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	33,195	12,623	₦29.8bn	₦29.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	30,090	10,173	₦11.3bn	₦11.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	2,771	2,216	₦14.8bn	₦14.8bn	49%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	334	234	₦3.76bn	₦3.76bn	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	13,898	5,194	₦10bn	₦9.83bn
3.0	8,721	2,910	₦6.9bn	₦6.88bn
2.0	4,584	1,541	₦550m	₦548m
0.0	2,631	885	₦134m	₦134m
5.0	1,615	1,224	₦5.75bn	₦5.75bn
1.0	1,247	463	₦96.1m	₦96.1m
6.0	499	406	₦6.42bn	₦6.42bn