Osun State

Rooftop solar in Ifedayo, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Ifedayo has 5,814 buildings with a viable rooftop and 127 MWp of roof capacity. 29% run a generator, and together they spend ₦8.88bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

5,814

Usable roof area

563,773 m²

127 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦8.88bn/yr

8.19 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ifedayo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦8.88bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦8.59bn

Lifetime cash saved₦445bn

NPV₦70.1bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy4.35 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity23 MWp

Capex₦23.9bn

Year-one energy value₦22.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.06tn

NPV₦180bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ifedayo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 23 MWp
Capital cost: ₦23.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦22.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦180bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ifedayo pays back quickly

Of the 5,744 buildings in Ifedayo with a modelled payback, 74.1% pay back inside five years and 29.2% inside three.

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How much of Ifedayo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ifedayo consume 11.3 GWh/yr but want 15.6 GWh/yr. The 28% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ifedayo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ifedayo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 5,744 buildings with a modelled result out of 5,814 in Ifedayo. 4,797 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,680 (29%)

Under 5 years4,256 (74%)

Under 7 years4,795 (83%)

Under 10 years5,194 (90%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%5,108 (88%)

Above 15%4,797 (83%)

Above 20%4,445 (76%)

Above 25%3,790 (65%)

CO₂ avoided

14.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.83 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

4.35 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

49.6k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ifedayo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ifedayo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	3,835	1,322	₦6.37bn	₦6.14bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	1,979	358	₦2.51bn	₦2.45bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	5,562	1,455	₦7.45bn	₦7.23bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	104	95	₦723m	₦723m	63%	1.6 yr
Anchor	99	87	₦645m	₦579m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	33	29	₦15.7m	₦15.7m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	14	12	₦39.2m	₦38.7m	71%	1.4 yr
Filling Station	2	2	₦5.93m	₦5.93m	57%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	2,193	673	₦4.08bn	₦3.92bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	1,252	243	₦353m	₦353m	25%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	1,209	349	₦78.3m	₦77.1m	13%	7.6 yr
30 50m2	647	169	₦79.7m	₦79.7m	21%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	509	243	₦4.11bn	₦3.97bn	27%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	4	3	₦184m	₦184m	79%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	3,609	1,181	₦5.42bn	₦5.35bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	1,270	329	₦2.11bn	₦1.89bn	25%	4.1 yr
Rural	655	25	₦49.9m	₦49.9m	21%	5.1 yr
Urban	280	145	₦1.3bn	₦1.29bn	71%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	1,681	269	₦467m	₦467m	25%	4.1 yr
Residential	1,422	555	₦6.41bn	₦6.19bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	1,211	311	₦409m	₦409m	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	904	265	₦48.9m	₦48.9m	9%	9.6 yr
Apartment	251	37	₦79.9m	₦79.9m	27%	4.1 yr
Duplex	90	17	₦35.8m	₦35.8m	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	57	48	₦242m	₦242m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial	53	53	₦507m	₦507m	69%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	33	29	₦15.7m	₦15.7m	65%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	26	20	₦321m	₦256m	51%	2.1 yr
Clinic	24	20	₦94.8m	₦93.8m	51%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	16	15	₦72.7m	₦72.7m	83%	1.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	5,814	1,680	₦8.88bn	₦8.59bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	5,645	1,525	₦7.69bn	₦7.46bn	27%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	113	99	₦684m	₦617m	61%	1.9 yr
SME High	56	56	₦513m	₦513m	69%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	2,277	826	₦7.47bn	₦7.18bn
4.0	1,858	336	₦1.05bn	₦1.05bn
0.0	885	249	₦39m	₦39m
2.0	597	177	₦266m	₦264m
1.0	196	91	₦53.9m	₦53.9m
5.0	1	1	₦4.39m	₦4.39m