Osun State

Rooftop solar in Ife South, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Ife South has 32,011 buildings with a viable rooftop and 613 MWp of roof capacity. 10% run a generator, and together they spend ₦11bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

32,011

Usable roof area

2.73 km²

613 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦11bn/yr

9.42 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ife South

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦11bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦10.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦610bn

NPV₦87.5bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy13.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity92.3 MWp

Capex₦95.6bn

Year-one energy value₦88.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.14tn

NPV₦706bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ife South's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 92.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦95.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦88.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦706bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ife South pays back quickly

Of the 31,734 buildings in Ife South with a modelled payback, 59.1% pay back inside five years and 9.9% inside three.

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How much of Ife South's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ife South consume 21.2 GWh/yr but want 34.5 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ife South

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ife South actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 31,734 buildings with a modelled result out of 32,011 in Ife South. 23,654 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,155 (10%)

Under 5 years18,759 (59%)

Under 7 years23,598 (74%)

Under 10 years26,381 (83%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%25,869 (81%)

Above 15%23,654 (74%)

Above 20%20,476 (64%)

Above 25%7,832 (24%)

CO₂ avoided

22.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.83 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

13.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

441k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ife South.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ife South

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	26,551	2,628	₦9.94bn	₦9.84bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	5,460	497	₦1.08bn	₦1.08bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	30,491	2,141	₦7.74bn	₦7.64bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	685	458	₦1.39bn	₦1.39bn	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	392	279	₦1.58bn	₦1.58bn	53%	1.9 yr
Industrial	250	119	₦251m	₦251m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	162	102	₦29.7m	₦29.7m	57%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	29	25	₦29.9m	₦29.9m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	2	1	₦3.67m	₦3.67m	33%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	11,535	1,451	₦4.97bn	₦4.89bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	11,367	610	₦1.12bn	₦1.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	3,781	386	₦95.5m	₦94.5m	7%	15.1 yr
30 50m2	3,780	275	₦162m	₦159m	9%	9.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,532	395	₦3.49bn	₦3.49bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	16	8	₦1.18bn	₦1.18bn	27%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	14,770	662	₦4.15bn	₦4.06bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	8,762	876	₦2.45bn	₦2.44bn	21%	5.1 yr
Dense Urban	7,181	1,138	₦3.34bn	₦3.34bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	1,298	449	₦1.07bn	₦1.07bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	13,294	695	₦1.21bn	₦1.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	7,834	1,002	₦6bn	₦5.91bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	4,413	229	₦53.9m	₦53.9m	7%	14.9 yr
Residential Formal	4,081	159	₦386m	₦386m	23%	4.6 yr
Apartment	635	52	₦81.6m	₦81.6m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	349	228	₦1.17bn	₦1.17bn	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	233	103	₦348m	₦348m	33%	3.4 yr
Duplex	204	4	₦10.4m	₦10.4m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	162	102	₦29.7m	₦29.7m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial Site	138	74	₦169m	₦169m	47%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	123	95	₦408m	₦408m	77%	1.4 yr
Commercial	121	116	₦310m	₦310m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	32,003	3,125	₦11bn	₦10.9bn
Commercial	6	0	₦11.5k	₦11.5k
Industrial	2	0	₦24.9k	₦24.9k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	30,986	2,482	₦8.5bn	₦8.4bn	23%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	640	397	₦1.82bn	₦1.82bn	51%	2.1 yr
SME High	385	246	₦691m	₦691m	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	13,477	1,914	₦8.64bn	₦8.55bn
2.0	7,295	412	₦927m	₦913m
4.0	4,843	387	₦1.21bn	₦1.21bn
0.0	4,319	192	₦35.8m	₦35.8m
1.0	2,070	213	₦187m	₦184m
5.0	7	7	₦14.9m	₦14.9m