Osun State

Rooftop solar in Ife North, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Ife North has 36,295 buildings with a viable rooftop and 853 MWp of roof capacity. 10% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.62bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

36,295

Usable roof area

3.79 km²

853 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.62bn/yr

6.08 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.1 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ife North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.62bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦433bn

NPV₦61bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback5.1 yr

Unlocked energy10.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity50.3 MWp

Capex₦48.6bn

Year-one energy value₦36.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.74tn

NPV₦287bn

Median IRR81%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ife North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 50.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦48.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦36.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦287bn
Median IRR: 81%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ife North pays back quickly

Of the 34,621 buildings in Ife North with a modelled payback, 49.2% pay back inside five years and 10.2% inside three.

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How much of Ife North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ife North consume 16.6 GWh/yr but want 26.8 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ife North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ife North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 34,621 buildings with a modelled result out of 36,295 in Ife North. 23,732 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,527 (10%)

Under 5 years17,041 (49%)

Under 7 years23,666 (68%)

Under 10 years28,508 (82%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%27,878 (77%)

Above 15%23,732 (65%)

Above 20%19,005 (52%)

Above 25%6,528 (18%)

CO₂ avoided

16.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.04 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

84.7k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ife North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ife North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	16,613	1,490	₦2.79bn	₦2.78bn	21%	4.9 yr
E	15,228	1,080	₦2.88bn	₦2.88bn	17%	5.9 yr
C	3,609	856	₦1.79bn	₦1.79bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	845	179	₦157m	₦157m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	34,382	2,722	₦4.3bn	₦4.29bn	19%	5.4 yr
Commercial General	946	484	₦2.34bn	₦2.34bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	561	174	₦46.1m	₦46.1m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	272	160	₦775m	₦775m	43%	2.6 yr
Industrial	98	48	₦123m	₦123m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	20	9	₦9.5m	₦9.5m	33%	3.1 yr
Worship	9	5	₦2.83m	₦2.83m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	6	2	₦18.6m	₦18.6m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦275k	₦275k	53%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	14,867	1,566	₦3.28bn	₦3.27bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	7,615	458	₦268m	₦268m	15%	6.6 yr
Under 30m2	6,289	570	₦99.4m	₦99.4m	5%	14.6 yr
30 50m2	4,004	306	₦90.4m	₦88.3m	9%	9.6 yr
250 1000m2	3,483	695	₦3.52bn	₦3.52bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	37	10	₦363m	₦363m	25%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	21,297	2,260	₦4.7bn	₦4.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	7,893	283	₦862m	₦854m	17%	6.4 yr
Urban	4,035	980	₦1.93bn	₦1.92bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	3,070	82	₦124m	₦124m	13%	7.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	13,047	468	₦670m	₦668m	19%	5.1 yr
Residential Small	6,688	420	₦183m	₦183m	15%	6.6 yr
Residential	6,461	1,203	₦3.19bn	₦3.18bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	4,367	495	₦113m	₦113m	9%	13.4 yr
Apartment	2,231	48	₦70.7m	₦70.7m	23%	4.9 yr
Duplex	988	36	₦36.7m	₦36.7m	23%	4.9 yr
Residential Informal	591	48	₦30.2m	₦30.2m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	561	174	₦46.1m	₦46.1m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	487	296	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	43%	2.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	249	82	₦731m	₦731m	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	197	106	₦430m	₦430m	33%	3.4 yr
Educational Facility	80	48	₦144m	₦144m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	36,275	3,605	₦7.61bn	₦7.6bn
Commercial	10	0	₦223k	₦223k
Retail	4	0	₦74.3k	₦74.3k
Farmland	2	0	₦11.3k	₦11.3k
Farmyard	2	0	₦13.3k	₦13.3k
Industrial	2	0	₦6.67k	₦6.67k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	35,169	3,007	₦4.67bn	₦4.66bn	21%	5.1 yr
SME High	757	390	₦2.05bn	₦2.05bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	369	208	₦898m	₦898m	41%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	15,491	723	₦1.88bn	₦1.88bn
3.0	10,446	1,825	₦4.24bn	₦4.23bn
2.0	4,093	310	₦183m	₦183m
0.0	3,621	415	₦70.5m	₦70.5m
1.0	2,403	207	₦93.3m	₦93.3m
5.0	158	75	₦404m	₦404m
6.0	83	50	₦739m	₦739m