Osun State

Rooftop solar in Ede South, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Ede South has 28,728 buildings with a viable rooftop and 762 MWp of roof capacity. 13% run a generator, and together they spend ₦12.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

28,728

Usable roof area

3.38 km²

762 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦12.9bn/yr

11.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ede South

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦12.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦706bn

NPV₦102bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy14.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity68.3 MWp

Capex₦66.2bn

Year-one energy value₦50.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.38tn

NPV₦393bn

Median IRR77%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ede South's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 68.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦66.2bn
Year 1 savings: ₦50.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦393bn
Median IRR: 77%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ede South pays back quickly

Of the 27,511 buildings in Ede South with a modelled payback, 55.5% pay back inside five years and 12.9% inside three.

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How much of Ede South's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ede South consume 26.6 GWh/yr but want 41.1 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ede South

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ede South actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 27,511 buildings with a modelled result out of 28,728 in Ede South. 19,989 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,548 (13%)

Under 5 years15,270 (56%)

Under 7 years19,932 (72%)

Under 10 years23,115 (84%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%22,685 (79%)

Above 15%19,989 (70%)

Above 20%16,390 (57%)

Above 25%9,081 (32%)

CO₂ avoided

25.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.26 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

14.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

139k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ede South.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ede South

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	14,935	1,616	₦3.47bn	₦3.47bn	21%	4.9 yr
C	8,242	724	₦4.56bn	₦4.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	4,552	845	₦2.59bn	₦2.57bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	999	498	₦2.29bn	₦2.24bn	35%	3.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	27,209	2,859	₦6.82bn	₦6.75bn	23%	4.9 yr
Commercial General	671	343	₦1.77bn	₦1.77bn	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	324	205	₦501m	₦500m	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	278	98	₦27.7m	₦27.7m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	223	167	₦3.78bn	₦3.72bn	49%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	17	7	₦12.3m	₦12.3m	33%	3.1 yr
Worship	4	4	₦1.61m	₦1.61m	39%	2.6 yr
Automotive	1	0	₦181k	₦181k	29%	3.6 yr
Mall Retail	1	0	₦118k	₦118k	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	12,005	1,469	₦3.58bn	₦3.53bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	5,090	623	₦550m	₦545m	17%	5.9 yr
Under 30m2	4,952	575	₦108m	₦107m	5%	13.6 yr
250 1000m2	3,564	540	₦3.82bn	₦3.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	2,968	368	₦132m	₦129m	13%	7.9 yr
Over 1000m2	149	108	₦4.72bn	₦4.67bn	49%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	17,058	1,035	₦1.79bn	₦1.79bn	21%	4.9 yr
Urban	4,858	1,424	₦6.87bn	₦6.78bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	4,627	402	₦2.22bn	₦2.19bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	1,358	184	₦581m	₦581m	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	827	638	₦1.45bn	₦1.45bn	73%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	8,702	520	₦351m	₦351m	21%	4.9 yr
Residential	6,410	1,115	₦5.48bn	₦5.42bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	4,796	690	₦556m	₦548m	19%	5.1 yr
Shed	3,173	308	₦47.9m	₦47.9m	9%	9.6 yr
Residential Informal	1,970	140	₦319m	₦319m	21%	4.9 yr
Apartment	1,458	54	₦41.7m	₦41.7m	23%	4.6 yr
Duplex	660	29	₦18.6m	₦18.6m	23%	4.9 yr
Institutional	285	189	₦3.48bn	₦3.47bn	43%	2.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	278	98	₦27.7m	₦27.7m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	238	125	₦659m	₦659m	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial	198	65	₦566m	₦566m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial Site	171	108	₦282m	₦281m	53%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	28,728	3,683	₦12.9bn	₦12.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	27,736	3,118	₦7.41bn	₦7.33bn	23%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	537	368	₦4.26bn	₦4.21bn	49%	2.1 yr
SME High	455	197	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn	35%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	11,913	1,081	₦3.9bn	₦3.86bn
3.0	9,902	1,735	₦8.17bn	₦8.09bn
0.0	3,140	281	₦46.4m	₦46.4m
2.0	2,793	383	₦452m	₦448m
1.0	795	192	₦87.2m	₦87.1m
5.0	154	11	₦219m	₦219m
6.0	31	0	₦38.7m	₦38.7m