Osun State

Rooftop solar in Boluwaduro, Osun: what the roofs are worth

Boluwaduro has 12,789 buildings with a viable rooftop and 288 MWp of roof capacity. 35% run a generator, and together they spend ₦18.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

12,789

Usable roof area

1.28 km²

288 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦18.5bn/yr

17.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Boluwaduro

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦18.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦17.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦919bn

NPV₦145bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy7.14 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity43.1 MWp

Capex₦44.8bn

Year-one energy value₦42.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.03tn

NPV₦346bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Boluwaduro's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 43.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦44.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦42.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦346bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Boluwaduro pays back quickly

Of the 12,628 buildings in Boluwaduro with a modelled payback, 70.1% pay back inside five years and 35.1% inside three.

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How much of Boluwaduro's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Boluwaduro consume 21.8 GWh/yr but want 29 GWh/yr. The 25% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Boluwaduro

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Boluwaduro actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 12,628 buildings with a modelled result out of 12,789 in Boluwaduro. 10,209 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,436 (35%)

Under 5 years8,850 (70%)

Under 7 years10,201 (81%)

Under 10 years11,049 (87%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%10,898 (85%)

Above 15%10,209 (80%)

Above 20%9,266 (72%)

Above 25%8,071 (63%)

CO₂ avoided

29.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

10.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

7.14 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

92k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Boluwaduro.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Boluwaduro

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	12,285	4,351	₦17.9bn	₦17.4bn	25%	4.1 yr
D	504	84	₦598m	₦555m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	12,351	4,046	₦15.7bn	₦15.2bn	25%	4.1 yr
Anchor	186	176	₦1.44bn	₦1.43bn	69%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	124	109	₦921m	₦921m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	115	91	₦388m	₦383m	69%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	11	11	₦29m	₦29m	69%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	1	1	₦297k	₦297k	51%	2.1 yr
Worship	1	1	₦705k	₦705k	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	5,231	1,877	₦7.49bn	₦7.48bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	2,469	798	₦191m	₦186m	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	2,445	722	₦754m	₦754m	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	1,504	421	₦196m	₦196m	17%	6.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,134	613	₦9.4bn	₦8.82bn	65%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	6	4	₦487m	₦487m	65%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	7,500	2,344	₦7.32bn	₦7.3bn	25%	4.1 yr
Urban	3,402	1,829	₦9.15bn	₦9.1bn	71%	1.4 yr
Unclassified	1,885	262	₦2.06bn	₦1.52bn	11%	6.9 yr
(Unset)	2	0	₦11.2k	₦11.2k	15%	6.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	4,328	1,966	₦14.2bn	₦13.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	4,139	1,526	₦1.15bn	₦1.15bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	1,858	459	₦74.6m	₦74.6m	7%	13.9 yr
Residential Formal	1,546	66	₦297m	₦297m	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	364	16	₦38.9m	₦38.9m	25%	4.1 yr
Institutional	148	130	₦984m	₦984m	59%	1.9 yr
Duplex	96	2	₦7.89m	₦7.89m	25%	4.1 yr
Industrial Site	77	58	₦256m	₦253m	71%	1.4 yr
Educational Facility	45	44	₦292m	₦292m	85%	1.1 yr
School	44	42	₦187m	₦187m	85%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	26	24	₦301m	₦299m	55%	1.9 yr
Clinic	24	23	₦320m	₦306m	53%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	12,751	4,405	₦18.3bn	₦17.7bn
Industrial	38	30	₦206m	₦206m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	12,476	4,156	₦16.7bn	₦16.1bn	25%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	301	267	₦1.83bn	₦1.81bn	69%	1.6 yr
SME High	12	12	₦30.1m	₦30m	69%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	6,893	3,087	₦17.3bn	₦16.7bn
4.0	1,931	112	₦551m	₦551m
0.0	1,864	470	₦81.5m	₦81.5m
2.0	1,718	643	₦519m	₦517m
1.0	382	122	₦35.7m	₦35.6m
5.0	1	1	₦56.6m	₦56.6m